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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Closed strongly B 1.21.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 10 5.2 3/4
2 0 SO AWESOME Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 2 2.7 3/4
3 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 5 38.0 1
4 0 MOMENTUM HAPPY Led early B K C Leung · K H Ting 3 15.0 1-1/4
5 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 1 10.0 2-1/2
6 0 ULTIMATE GLORY V Z Purton · K L Man 9 6.8 2-3/4
7 0 TAILOR MADE B- M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 27.0 3-3/4
8 0 EPTIWINS Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 8 5.3 4-1/4
9 0 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 7 37.0 6-1/4
10 0 LEADING FORTUNE B/E A Badel · J Size 4 15.0 11-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with SO AWESOME second and MORE THAN ENOUGH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite SO AWESOME finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S—2. SO AWESOME+0.75L3. MORE THAN ENOUGH+1L4. MOMENTUM HAPPY+1.25L5. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2.5L6. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.75L7. TAILOR MADE+3.75L8. EPTIWINS+4.25L9. DAILY CHARM+6.25L10. LEADING FORTUNE+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SO AWESOME (34.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SO AWESOME 34.8% 2.87 2
2 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 13.2% 7.57 5
3 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 11.6% 8.64 1
4 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 9.5% 10.53 6
5 0 LEADING FORTUNE 8.7% 11.54 10
6 0 EPTIWINS 7.6% 13.18 8
7 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH 5.8% 17.32 3
8 0 MOMENTUM HAPPY 4.6% 21.79 4
9 0 TAILOR MADE 3.1% 31.81 7
10 0 DAILY CHARM 1.1% 88.49 9
SO AWESOMEWINWIN THIRTYTHREEALL FOR ST PAUL'S — wonULTIMATE GLORYLEADING FORTUNEEPTIWINSMORE THAN ENOUGHMOMENTUM HAPPYTAILOR MADEDAILY CHARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 52.5

PLACE

3 83.5

5 14.5

9 19.5

QUINELLA

5,9 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 147.5

3,9 237

5,9 32.5

FORECAST

9,5 235

TIERCE

9,5,3 3,154

TRIO

3,5,9 780

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 1,516

QUARTET

9,5,3,4 28,435

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/5 10.5

10/9 113

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 21

A1 —