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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with SO AWESOME second and MORE THAN ENOUGH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite SO AWESOME finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Closed strongly B 1.21.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 10 5.2 3/4
2 5 SO AWESOME Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 2 2.7 3/4
3 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 5 38.0 1
4 4 MOMENTUM HAPPY Led early B K C Leung · K H Ting 3 15.0 1-1/4
5 8 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 1 10.0 2-1/2
6 1 ULTIMATE GLORY V Z Purton · K L Man 9 6.8 2-3/4
7 10 TAILOR MADE B- M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 27.0 3-3/4
8 7 EPTIWINS Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 8 5.3 4-1/4
9 6 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 7 37.0 6-1/4
10 2 LEADING FORTUNE B/E A Badel · J Size 4 15.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S2. SO AWESOME+0.75L3. MORE THAN ENOUGH+1L4. MOMENTUM HAPPY+1.25L5. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2.5L6. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.75L7. TAILOR MADE+3.75L8. EPTIWINS+4.25L9. DAILY CHARM+6.25L10. LEADING FORTUNE+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SO AWESOME (34.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SO AWESOME 34.8% 2.87 2
2 8 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 13.2% 7.57 5
3 9 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 11.6% 8.64 1
4 1 ULTIMATE GLORY 9.5% 10.53 6
5 2 LEADING FORTUNE 8.7% 11.54 10
6 7 EPTIWINS 7.6% 13.18 8
7 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH 5.8% 17.32 3
8 4 MOMENTUM HAPPY 4.6% 21.79 4
9 10 TAILOR MADE 3.1% 31.81 7
10 6 DAILY CHARM 1.1% 88.49 9
SO AWESOMEWINWIN THIRTYTHREEALL FOR ST PAUL'S — wonULTIMATE GLORYLEADING FORTUNEEPTIWINSMORE THAN ENOUGHMOMENTUM HAPPYTAILOR MADEDAILY CHARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 52.5

PLACE

3 83.5

5 14.5

9 19.5

QUINELLA

5,9 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 147.5

3,9 237

5,9 32.5

FORECAST

9,5 235

TIERCE

9,5,3 3,154

TRIO

3,5,9 780

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 1,516

QUARTET

9,5,3,4 28,435

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/5 10.5

10/9 113

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 21

A1