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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C H Yip, won by 3, with PARTY EVERYDAY second and CROWN AVENUE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite PARTY EVERYDAY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT Closed strongly P2 1.39.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C H Yip 5 6.9 3
2 1 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 3.1 3
3 12 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V Z Purton · C H Yip 3 3.9 3
4 2 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT J Moreira · K W Lui 14 4.8 3-3/4
5 13 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 39.0 4-1/2
6 6 KING'S RACE Led early B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 8 25.0 4-3/4
7 3 UNITE SPIRIT XB- C L Chau · D E Ferraris 2 12.0 5-1/2
8 9 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 12 69.0 8-1/4
9 4 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly B A Badel · D E Ferraris 10 24.0 9-1/4
10 8 NATURAL WINNER CP/TT C Schofield · R Gibson 13 118.0 12-1/4
11 14 WELL DRAGON Closed strongly TT V Borges · W Y So 11 44.0 17-3/4
12 11 WAR LORD P A Hamelin · J Size 7 26.0 19-1/2
13 5 FUN LEGEND B Shinn · R Gibson 9 243.0 30-3/4
7 SONIC FIGHTER B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 4 50.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT2. PARTY EVERYDAY+3L3. CROWN AVENUE+3L4. SKYEY SUPREME+3.75L5. DOUBLE TAKE+4.5L6. KING'S RACE+4.75L7. UNITE SPIRIT+5.5L8. CHEERFUL STAR+8.25L9. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+9.25L10. NATURAL WINNER+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PARTY EVERYDAY (25.5%) finished 2nd — the winner CHUNG WAH SPIRIT was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PARTY EVERYDAY 25.5% 3.92 2
2 2 SKYEY SUPREME 18.7% 5.33 4
3 12 CROWN AVENUE 14.5% 6.92 3
4 13 DOUBLE TAKE 6.9% 14.40 5
5 11 WAR LORD 6.6% 15.26 12
6 6 KING'S RACE 6.5% 15.33 6
7 3 UNITE SPIRIT 5.3% 18.88 7
8 9 CHEERFUL STAR 4.6% 21.61 8
9 10 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 4.2% 23.67 1
10 4 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 2.6% 38.64 9
11 8 NATURAL WINNER 2.3% 43.44 10
12 14 WELL DRAGON 1.7% 57.80 11
13 5 FUN LEGEND 0.5% 198.72 13
PARTY EVERYDAYSKYEY SUPREMECROWN AVENUEDOUBLE TAKEWAR LORDKING'S RACEUNITE SPIRITCHEERFUL STARCHUNG WAH SPIRIT — wonLONDON LUCKYSTARNATURAL WINNERWELL DRAGONFUN LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 69.5

PLACE

1 15

10 27

12 14

QUINELLA

1,10 176

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 58.5

1,12 31

10,12 67.5

FORECAST

10,1 483

TIERCE

10,1,12 1,742

TRIO

1,10,12 208

FIRST 4

1,2,10,12 170

QUARTET

10,1,12,2 6,229

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,6/1,10,12 10,968

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 21

6TH DOUBLE

4/1 37.5

4/10 918