沙田 · 2020-10-04
第 7場
2020-10-04沙田第7場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由M Chadwick策騎、C H Yip訓練的CHUNG WAH SPIRIT勝出，贏出3。PARTY EVERYDAY獲得亞軍；CROWN AVENUE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門PARTY EVERYDAY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 後段發力 P2 1.39.89 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 5 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | PARTY EVERYDAY 後段發力 H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.1 | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | CROWN AVENUE 後段發力 V Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 3 | 3.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | SKYEY SUPREME B/TT J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 14 | 4.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | DOUBLE TAKE 後段發力 B M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 6 | 39.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | KING'S RACE 早段領放 B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 8 | 25.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | UNITE SPIRIT XB- C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 2 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | CHEERFUL STAR 後段發力 CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 12 | 69.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR 後段發力 B A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 10 | 24.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | NATURAL WINNER CP/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 13 | 118.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | WELL DRAGON 後段發力 TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 11 | 44.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | WAR LORD P A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 26.0 | 19-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | FUN LEGEND B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 9 | 243.0 | 30-3/4 |
| — | 7 | SONIC FIGHTER B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 50.0 | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PARTY EVERYDAY | 25.5% | 3.92 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | SKYEY SUPREME | 18.7% | 5.33 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | CROWN AVENUE | 14.5% | 6.92 | 3 |
| 4 | 13 | DOUBLE TAKE | 6.9% | 14.40 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | WAR LORD | 6.6% | 15.26 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | KING'S RACE | 6.5% | 15.33 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | UNITE SPIRIT | 5.3% | 18.88 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | CHEERFUL STAR | 4.6% | 21.61 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT | 4.2% | 23.67 | 1 |
| 10 | 4 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 2.6% | 38.64 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | NATURAL WINNER | 2.3% | 43.44 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | WELL DRAGON | 1.7% | 57.80 | 11 |
| 13 | 5 | FUN LEGEND | 0.5% | 198.72 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 69.5
PLACE
1 15
10 27
12 14
QUINELLA
1,10 176
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 58.5
1,12 31
10,12 67.5
FORECAST
10,1 483
TIERCE
10,1,12 1,742
TRIO
1,10,12 208
FIRST 4
1,2,10,12 170
QUARTET
10,1,12,2 6,229
全部彩池（另 3 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,6/1,10,12 10,968
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 21
6TH DOUBLE
4/1 37.5
4/10 918