沙田 · 2020-10-04
第 10場
2020-10-04沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的EXCELLENT PROPOSAL勝出，贏出1/2。TIANCHI MONSTER獲得亞軍；RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 後段發力 E 1.48.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 1.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 14 | TIANCHI MONSTER 後段發力 M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 1 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 7 | 30.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | SAVVY NINE 後段發力 XB C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | AMAZING BEATS CP V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 48.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR 後段發力 XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 25.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | RELIABLE TEAM 早段領放 B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | BUTTERFIELD TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 11 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM 後段發力 CP/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 8 | 50.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | HO HO KHAN 後段發力 C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 14 | 43.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | GLORIOUS ARTIST K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 12 | 287.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 11 | ARROGANT TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 5 | 329.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | ENRICHMENT B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 4 | 21.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 14 | 12 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR H/TT C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 10 | 232.0 | 7 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 33.1% | 3.02 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | RELIABLE TEAM | 15.2% | 6.56 | 7 |
| 3 | 13 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 10.2% | 9.81 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 7.3% | 13.63 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | SAVVY NINE | 6.5% | 15.40 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | BUTTERFIELD | 5.4% | 18.59 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | ENRICHMENT | 4.8% | 20.92 | 13 |
| 8 | 2 | HO HO KHAN | 4.1% | 24.45 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | AMAZING BEATS | 4.0% | 25.06 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 3.4% | 29.67 | 3 |
| 11 | 14 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 2.2% | 44.89 | 2 |
| 12 | 8 | GLORIOUS ARTIST | 1.9% | 53.04 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR | 1.4% | 71.86 | 14 |
| 14 | 11 | ARROGANT | 0.6% | 176.51 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 15.5
PLACE
6 12.5
9 41
14 28.5
QUINELLA
6,14 84.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 63.5
6,14 35
9,14 310.5
FORECAST
6,14 120
TIERCE
6,14,9 1,150
TRIO
6,9,14 621
FIRST 4
4,6,9,14 355
QUARTET
6,14,9,4 4,691
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 15.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,9>11,14/6,9,14 24,341
9TH DOUBLE
6/6 242.5
6/14 325.5
SIX UP
3,14/4,5/1,10/1,13/6,11,14/6,14 1,848
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/6/6 929
1/6/14 1,413