Sha Tin · 2020-10-04
Race 10
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly E 1.48.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 1.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 1 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 7 | 30.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | SAVVY NINE Closed strongly XB C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | AMAZING BEATS CP V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 48.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 25.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM Led early B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | BUTTERFIELD TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 11 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 8 | 50.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | HO HO KHAN Closed strongly C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 14 | 43.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | GLORIOUS ARTIST K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 12 | 287.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | ARROGANT TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 5 | 329.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | ENRICHMENT B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 4 | 21.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR H/TT C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 10 | 232.0 | 7 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with TIANCHI MONSTER second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 33.1% | 3.02 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM | 15.2% | 6.56 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 10.2% | 9.81 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 7.3% | 13.63 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | SAVVY NINE | 6.5% | 15.40 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | BUTTERFIELD | 5.4% | 18.59 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | ENRICHMENT | 4.8% | 20.92 | 13 |
| 8 | 0 | HO HO KHAN | 4.1% | 24.45 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | AMAZING BEATS | 4.0% | 25.06 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 3.4% | 29.67 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 2.2% | 44.89 | 2 |
| 12 | 0 | GLORIOUS ARTIST | 1.9% | 53.04 | 11 |
| 13 | 0 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR | 1.4% | 71.86 | 14 |
| 14 | 0 | ARROGANT | 0.6% | 176.51 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 15.5
PLACE
6 12.5
9 41
14 28.5
QUINELLA
6,14 84.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 63.5
6,14 35
9,14 310.5
FORECAST
6,14 120
TIERCE
6,14,9 1,150
TRIO
6,9,14 621
FIRST 4
4,6,9,14 355
QUARTET
6,14,9,4 4,691
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,9>11,14/6,9,14 24,341
9TH DOUBLE
6/6 242.5
6/14 325.5
SIX UP
3,14/4,5/1,10/1,13/6,11,14/6,14 1,848
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/6/6 929
1/6/14 1,413