Sha Tin · 2020-10-04
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | YOU HAVE MY WORD Closed strongly B 1.47.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 1 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | GREAT SMART Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 13 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | WICKER Led early B K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 10 | 6.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION Closed strongly B B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 2 | 5.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 5 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | PROUD SKY Closed strongly B-/V2 M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 8 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | HAY RUN XB K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 11 | 24.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | ART OF RAW H/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 4 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly V/TT C L Chau · C Fownes | C L Chau | C Fownes | 6 | 7.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 7 | 10.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | JOY N FUN LEGEND V/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 3 | 79.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 9 | 52.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | DRAGON PRIDE B V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 12 | 46.0 | 12-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. YOU HAVE MY WORD, ridden by C Schofield and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with GREAT SMART second and WICKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite GREAT SMART finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GREAT SMART | 17.1% | 5.86 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | JOY MASTER | 16.7% | 5.97 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | ART OF RAW | 16.1% | 6.22 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR | 10.0% | 9.97 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 6.8% | 14.79 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION | 6.5% | 15.36 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | WICKER | 6.2% | 16.00 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | YOU HAVE MY WORD | 5.4% | 18.36 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | HAY RUN | 5.3% | 18.98 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | PROUD SKY | 3.5% | 28.18 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | YOUNG GLORY | 2.7% | 36.69 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | DRAGON PRIDE | 1.8% | 55.00 | 13 |
| 13 | 0 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 1.8% | 56.95 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 122
PLACE
5 39.5
7 16
12 25
QUINELLA
5,7 230.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 87
5,12 175
7,12 49.5
FORECAST
5,7 951
TIERCE
5,7,12 4,400
TRIO
5,7,12 464
FIRST 4
5,6,7,12 721
QUARTET
5,7,12,6 24,075
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 24.5
A1 —