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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B 1.22.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Hall 5 16.0 N
2 0 BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly B C L Chau · D E Ferraris 2 9.7 N
3 0 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 10 71.0 1-1/2
4 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 9 23.0 3
5 0 LUCKY GUY Closed strongly TT N Callan · C H Yip 1 14.0 3-1/4
6 0 TREASURE CHEST B/XB C Wong · P F Yiu 13 12.0 4-1/2
7 0 VITAL SPRING Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 12.0 4-1/2
8 0 GALAXY RACER Closed strongly V/TT C Schofield · C Fownes 7 58.0 5
9 0 HEALTHY TREASURE Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 154.0 6
10 0 MASTER GALAXY Z Purton · Y S Tsui 8 4.4 6-1/4
11 0 E GENERATION Led early H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 12 7.8 8
12 0 WONDER WIN M L Yeung · L Ho 11 14.0 10-1/4
13 0 GOLDEN MISSION TT A Badel · C W Chang 6 4.4 13-1/2
14 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B/TT V Borges · D A Hayes 3 10.0 17-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PLIKCLONE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with BLAZING PARTNERS second and ONE STEP AHEAD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite MASTER GALAXY finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PLIKCLONE—2. BLAZING PARTNERS+0.05L3. ONE STEP AHEAD+1.5L4. YES WE CAN+3L5. LUCKY GUY+3.25L6. TREASURE CHEST+4.5L7. VITAL SPRING+4.5L8. GALAXY RACER+5L9. HEALTHY TREASURE+6L10. MASTER GALAXY+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MASTER GALAXY (17.6%) finished 10th — the winner PLIKCLONE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MASTER GALAXY 17.6% 5.70 10
2 0 E GENERATION 12.8% 7.84 11
3 0 YES WE CAN 10.3% 9.71 4
4 0 GOLDEN MISSION 9.6% 10.41 13
5 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 8.6% 11.64 14
6 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 7.7% 13.04 2
7 0 TREASURE CHEST 6.7% 14.93 6
8 0 GALAXY RACER 6.0% 16.71 8
9 0 VITAL SPRING 5.9% 16.96 7
10 0 LUCKY GUY 4.9% 20.29 5
11 0 WONDER WIN 4.0% 25.07 12
12 0 PLIKCLONE 3.6% 27.57 1
13 0 ONE STEP AHEAD 1.2% 81.06 3
14 0 HEALTHY TREASURE 1.2% 86.01 9
MASTER GALAXYE GENERATIONYES WE CANGOLDEN MISSIONLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTBLAZING PARTNERSTREASURE CHESTGALAXY RACERVITAL SPRINGLUCKY GUYWONDER WINPLIKCLONE — wonONE STEP AHEADHEALTHY TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 160.5

PLACE

9 43.5

11 168.5

13 30.5

QUINELLA

9,13 783.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 1,476.5

9,13 228.5

11,13 956.5

FORECAST

9,13 2,509

TIERCE

9,13,11 69,957

TRIO

9,11,13 14,171

FIRST 4

5,9,11,13 61,274

QUARTET

9,13,11,5 615,805

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,9/9,11,13 2,035,859

3 PICK 1

A3 20.5

A1 —

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

9/9 1,561.5

9/13 97.5