沙田 · 2020-11-29
第 5場
2020-11-29沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由K C Leung策騎、F C Lor訓練的ALL FOR ST PAUL'S勝出，贏出1-3/4。LEADING FORTUNE獲得亞軍；EVER LAUGH獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.8倍大熱門MASTER HERO跑獲第10名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 一路領先 B 1.33.90 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 13 | 9.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 2 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | EVER LAUGH 後段發力 B/TT N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 3 | 9.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | GLORIOUS LOVER 後段發力 B A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 10 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 6 | 94.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION 後段發力 TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 5.6 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 後段發力 B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 4 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 1 | 55.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | PAKISTAN FRIEND B-/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 9 | 50.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | MASTER HERO XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 5 | 2.8 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 8 | 12.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | SEAWEED FORTUNE B/TT T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 7 | 7.9 | 10 |
| 13 | 4 | TELECOM ELITE M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 404.0 | 12-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | MASTER HERO | 43.6% | 2.29 | 10 |
| 2 | 8 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 10.5% | 9.51 | 12 |
| 3 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION | 7.9% | 12.70 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 6.9% | 14.48 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | LEADING FORTUNE | 6.3% | 15.97 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 6.1% | 16.45 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 4.7% | 21.45 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | EVER LAUGH | 4.0% | 24.70 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 3.6% | 27.42 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | LIGHT MY DAY | 3.0% | 33.38 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 1.5% | 65.83 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 1.4% | 71.74 | 7 |
| 13 | 4 | TELECOM ELITE | 0.5% | 196.54 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 92.5
PLACE
5 27.5
7 41
11 29
QUINELLA
7,11 594
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 174
5,11 131
7,11 174.5
FORECAST
11,7 1,447
TIERCE
11,7,5 8,540
TRIO
5,7,11 1,663
FIRST 4
2,5,7,11 4,750
QUARTET
11,7,5,2 93,210
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 24
4TH DOUBLE
2/7 49.5
2/11 198.5