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Sha Tin · 2020-11-29

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-29 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with LEADING FORTUNE second and EVER LAUGH third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite MASTER HERO finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.33.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Wire to wire B 1.33.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 13 9.2 1-3/4
2 7 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly C Schofield · J Size 2 11.0 1-3/4
3 5 EVER LAUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · K L Man 3 9.7 3-3/4
4 2 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B A Badel · Y S Tsui 10 18.0 4
5 9 LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT H W Lai · C H Yip 6 94.0 4-1/2
6 1 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 5.6 5
7 6 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly B Shinn · D J Hall 4 14.0 6
8 13 RIGHTEOUS WIN B V Borges · P F Yiu 1 55.0 6
9 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND B-/TT C L Chau · W Y So 9 50.0 6-1/2
10 10 MASTER HERO XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 5 2.8 9
11 12 HAPPY WIN WIN TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 12.0 10
12 8 SEAWEED FORTUNE B/TT T Piccone · K W Lui 7 7.9 10
13 4 TELECOM ELITE M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 12 404.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S2. LEADING FORTUNE+1.75L3. EVER LAUGH+3.75L4. GLORIOUS LOVER+4L5. LIGHT MY DAY+4.5L6. DECISIVE ACTION+5L7. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT+6L8. RIGHTEOUS WIN+6L9. PAKISTAN FRIEND+6.5L10. MASTER HERO+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MASTER HERO (43.6%) finished 10th — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MASTER HERO 43.6% 2.29 10
2 8 SEAWEED FORTUNE 10.5% 9.51 12
3 1 DECISIVE ACTION 7.9% 12.70 6
4 12 HAPPY WIN WIN 6.9% 14.48 11
5 7 LEADING FORTUNE 6.3% 15.97 2
6 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 6.1% 16.45 1
7 2 GLORIOUS LOVER 4.7% 21.45 4
8 5 EVER LAUGH 4.0% 24.70 3
9 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND 3.6% 27.42 9
10 9 LIGHT MY DAY 3.0% 33.38 5
11 13 RIGHTEOUS WIN 1.5% 65.83 8
12 6 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 1.4% 71.74 7
13 4 TELECOM ELITE 0.5% 196.54 13
MASTER HEROSEAWEED FORTUNEDECISIVE ACTIONHAPPY WIN WINLEADING FORTUNEALL FOR ST PAUL'S — wonGLORIOUS LOVEREVER LAUGHPAKISTAN FRIENDLIGHT MY DAYRIGHTEOUS WINBUNDLE OF DELIGHTTELECOM ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 92.5

PLACE

5 27.5

7 41

11 29

QUINELLA

7,11 594

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 174

5,11 131

7,11 174.5

FORECAST

11,7 1,447

TIERCE

11,7,5 8,540

TRIO

5,7,11 1,663

FIRST 4

2,5,7,11 4,750

QUARTET

11,7,5,2 93,210

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 24

4TH DOUBLE

2/7 49.5

2/11 198.5