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Sha Tin · 2020-11-29

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ADONIS Closed strongly P-/CP2/H2 1.22.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 5.6 NOSE
2 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall 1 2.1 NOSE
3 0 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B-/H/TT V Borges · K W Lui 5 33.0 1
4 0 DESTIN Closed strongly B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 13 6.5 1-1/4
5 0 FUN TIMES Closed strongly B C Schofield · A T Millard 3 16.0 1-3/4
6 0 FORTUNE HERO Led early TT C Wong · R Gibson 6 21.0 3
7 0 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 11 18.0 3-1/2
8 0 NUREMBERG Closed strongly B/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 4 135.0 3-1/2
9 0 VICTORIOUS LEADER K C Leung · C H Yip 7 16.0 4
10 0 KEEP WINNING Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 224.0 4-1/2
11 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly CP/TT H W Lai · T P Yung 14 332.0 4-3/4
12 0 SOCCER MASTER B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 10 28.0 5
13 0 BLAZING PARTNERS B B Shinn · D E Ferraris 8 16.0 7-1/4
14 0 SEIZE THE SPIRIT A Badel · Y S Tsui 9 29.0 13-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-29 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ADONIS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with RED BRICK FIGHTER second and SPICY GRILL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite RED BRICK FIGHTER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ADONIS—2. RED BRICK FIGHTER+0.05L3. SPICY GRILL+1L4. DESTIN+1.25L5. FUN TIMES+1.75L6. FORTUNE HERO+3L7. GREEN ENVY+3.5L8. NUREMBERG+3.5L9. VICTORIOUS LEADER+4L10. KEEP WINNING+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RED BRICK FIGHTER (40.9%) finished 2nd — the winner ADONIS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 40.9% 2.45 2
2 0 ADONIS 13.9% 7.19 1
3 0 DESTIN 8.1% 12.32 4
4 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 5.7% 17.65 13
5 0 SPICY GRILL 4.9% 20.58 3
6 0 GREEN ENVY 4.6% 21.86 7
7 0 SOCCER MASTER 4.4% 22.78 12
8 0 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 3.8% 26.15 14
9 0 FUN TIMES 3.3% 29.91 5
10 0 VICTORIOUS LEADER 2.9% 34.04 9
11 0 FORTUNE HERO 2.7% 36.77 6
12 0 NUREMBERG 2.4% 41.67 8
13 0 KEEP WINNING 1.7% 59.21 10
14 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND 0.7% 140.02 11
RED BRICK FIGHTERADONIS — wonDESTINBLAZING PARTNERSSPICY GRILLGREEN ENVYSOCCER MASTERSEIZE THE SPIRITFUN TIMESVICTORIOUS LEADERFORTUNE HERONUREMBERGKEEP WINNINGJOY N FUN LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 56

PLACE

4 11.5

8 67

10 16.5

QUINELLA

4,10 57.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 101.5

4,10 28.5

8,10 194

FORECAST

10,4 198

TIERCE

10,4,8 2,278

TRIO

4,8,10 391

FIRST 4

1,4,8,10 763

QUARTET

10,4,8,1 18,619

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/4 10.5

9/10 264.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 34.5

A1 —