Sha Tin · 2020-11-29
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-29 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CZARSON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by 5-1/4, with FLYING ON THE TURF second and GUNNAR third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CZARSON CP/TT2 1.08.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 8 | 2.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB1/TT- M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 53.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | GUNNAR TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 12 | 4.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | ALL FOR SOUTH B N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 9 | 8.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | UTOPIA LIFE B-/V1 C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 6 | 6.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | NOTHING NEW H1 V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 1 | 127.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | HONGKONG GREAT B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 11 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | PING HAI TREASURE E-/P2 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | ORION PATCH B-/PC1/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 3 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | ACA POWER B1/XB1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 10 | 317.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | POISED TO STRIKE C Wong · D A Hayes | C Wong | D A Hayes | 7 | 28.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | FLASHCARD B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 2 | 94.0 | 18 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PING HAI TREASURE | 28.0% | 3.57 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | CZARSON | 23.3% | 4.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | ALL FOR SOUTH | 14.8% | 6.74 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | GUNNAR | 9.1% | 10.99 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | UTOPIA LIFE | 7.1% | 14.05 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | HONGKONG GREAT | 4.4% | 22.92 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | POISED TO STRIKE | 3.7% | 26.98 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 2.9% | 34.80 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | NOTHING NEW | 2.6% | 39.11 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | ORION PATCH | 2.1% | 47.07 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | FLASHCARD | 1.2% | 83.72 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | ACA POWER | 0.8% | 121.39 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 20
PLACE
2 11
8 16
12 108.5
QUINELLA
2,12 683
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 22
2,12 199.5
8,12 317.5
FORECAST
2,12 824
TIERCE
2,12,8 4,395
TRIO
2,8,12 824
FIRST 4
2,7,8,12 1,078
QUARTET
2,12,8,7 22,747
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,11/2,8,12 243,851
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 17
3RD DOUBLE
1/2 173.5
1/12 809