沙田 · 2020-11-29
第 4場
2020-11-29沙田第4場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由Z Purton策騎、P F Yiu訓練的CZARSON勝出，贏出5-1/4。FLYING ON THE TURF獲得亞軍；GUNNAR獲得季軍。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CZARSON CP/TT2 1.08.83 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 8 | 2.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB1/TT- M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 53.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | GUNNAR TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 12 | 4.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | ALL FOR SOUTH B N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 9 | 8.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | UTOPIA LIFE B-/V1 C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 6 | 6.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | NOTHING NEW H1 V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 1 | 127.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | HONGKONG GREAT B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 11 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | PING HAI TREASURE E-/P2 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | ORION PATCH B-/PC1/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 3 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | ACA POWER B1/XB1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 10 | 317.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | POISED TO STRIKE C Wong · D A Hayes | C Wong | D A Hayes | 7 | 28.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | FLASHCARD B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 2 | 94.0 | 18 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PING HAI TREASURE | 28.0% | 3.57 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | CZARSON | 23.3% | 4.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | ALL FOR SOUTH | 14.8% | 6.74 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | GUNNAR | 9.1% | 10.99 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | UTOPIA LIFE | 7.1% | 14.05 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | HONGKONG GREAT | 4.4% | 22.92 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | POISED TO STRIKE | 3.7% | 26.98 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 2.9% | 34.80 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | NOTHING NEW | 2.6% | 39.11 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | ORION PATCH | 2.1% | 47.07 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | FLASHCARD | 1.2% | 83.72 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | ACA POWER | 0.8% | 121.39 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 20
PLACE
2 11
8 16
12 108.5
QUINELLA
2,12 683
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 22
2,12 199.5
8,12 317.5
FORECAST
2,12 824
TIERCE
2,12,8 4,395
TRIO
2,8,12 824
FIRST 4
2,7,8,12 1,078
QUARTET
2,12,8,7 22,747
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,11/2,8,12 243,851
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 17
3RD DOUBLE
1/2 173.5
1/12 809