沙田 · 2020-11-29
第 3場
2020-11-29沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由N Callan策騎、J Size訓練的SUPER ALLIANCES勝出，贏出3/4。STAR SUPERIOR獲得亞軍；EL JEFE獲得季軍。3.5倍大熱門JADE PHOENIX跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPER ALLIANCES P 1.09.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 10 | 7.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | STAR SUPERIOR K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 3 | 29.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | EL JEFE XB/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 18.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | JADE PHOENIX B2 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | JADE THEATRE A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 5 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | WINNING STRIKES B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | LUCKY TURBO B/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 9 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | LUCKY DIAMOND T Piccone · K H Ting | T Piccone | K H Ting | 12 | 153.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | RESOLUTE B C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 1 | 3.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | PERFECT TO PLAY TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 4 | 70.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 11 | 61.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | VICTORY IN HAND TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 2 | 4.3 | 6-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JADE PHOENIX | 33.9% | 2.95 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | RESOLUTE | 19.2% | 5.21 | 9 |
| 3 | 3 | VICTORY IN HAND | 13.1% | 7.62 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 6.4% | 15.62 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | JADE THEATRE | 5.1% | 19.73 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.0% | 19.94 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 4.0% | 25.31 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING STRIKES | 3.4% | 29.07 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | EL JEFE | 3.0% | 33.82 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 2.8% | 35.82 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | HANDSOME REBEL | 2.3% | 42.84 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | LUCKY TURBO | 1.8% | 54.39 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 75.5
PLACE
1 20
5 58.5
11 59
QUINELLA
1,11 686
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 235
1,11 181.5
5,11 504
FORECAST
1,11 1,130
TIERCE
1,11,5 15,294
TRIO
1,5,11 3,324
FIRST 4
1,4,5,11 2,792
QUARTET
1,11,5,4 63,959
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
10/1 535
10/11 153
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 20.5