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Sha Tin · 2020-11-29

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-29 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER AXIOM, ridden by C Schofield and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2, with AMAZING ROCKY second and ROMANTIC TROVE third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SUPER AXIOM XB1 0.56.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · D A Hayes 3 2.2 2
2 2 AMAZING ROCKY H Z Purton · T P Yung 14 4.6 2
3 8 ROMANTIC TROVE T Piccone · W Y So 1 89.0 2-3/4
4 10 GOKO B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 11.0 3-3/4
5 13 ALL THE WAY B/TT C Wong · A T Millard 13 33.0 6
6 3 ICE LEGEND H1 N Callan · D J Hall 2 189.0 6
7 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE XB-/B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 14.0 7-3/4
8 5 MISTER ARM H W Lai · Y S Tsui 6 281.0 9
9 14 PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/CP1/TT A Badel · L Ho 12 19.0 11-3/4
10 12 LUCKY RUBY B1 K H Chan · K L Man 10 100.0 13-3/4
11 1 CHAMPION PRIDE TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 5 59.0 16-3/4
12 6 MULTIMORE B1/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 7 22.0 17-1/4
13 7 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 9 9.7 21-1/4
4 LUCKY FUN H1 M Chadwick · C S Shum 8 8.2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER AXIOM2. AMAZING ROCKY+2L3. ROMANTIC TROVE+2.75L4. GOKO+3.75L5. ALL THE WAY+6L6. ICE LEGEND+6L7. VALIANT ELEGANCE+7.75L8. MISTER ARM+9L9. PRECIOUS SWEETIE+11.75L10. LUCKY RUBY+13.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RHAPSODY (22.6%) finished 13th — the winner SUPER AXIOM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 RHAPSODY 22.6% 4.43 13
2 2 AMAZING ROCKY 18.7% 5.34 2
3 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE 12.4% 8.04 7
4 10 GOKO 10.2% 9.83 4
5 9 SUPER AXIOM 9.6% 10.46 1
6 6 MULTIMORE 8.4% 11.97 12
7 3 ICE LEGEND 5.6% 17.92 6
8 13 ALL THE WAY 2.9% 34.63 5
9 14 PRECIOUS SWEETIE 2.6% 39.12 9
10 8 ROMANTIC TROVE 2.5% 39.99 3
11 5 MISTER ARM 1.8% 56.17 8
12 1 CHAMPION PRIDE 1.7% 57.70 11
13 12 LUCKY RUBY 1.1% 88.44 10
RHAPSODYAMAZING ROCKYVALIANT ELEGANCEGOKOSUPER AXIOM — wonMULTIMOREICE LEGENDALL THE WAYPRECIOUS SWEETIEROMANTIC TROVEMISTER ARMCHAMPION PRIDELUCKY RUBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 22.5

PLACE

2 16.5

8 165

9 12.5

QUINELLA

2,9 65.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 596.5

2,9 28

8,9 440.5

FORECAST

9,2 90

TIERCE

9,2,8 4,226

TRIO

2,8,9 1,850

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 2,420

QUARTET

9,2,8,10 35,774

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A3

A2