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Sha Tin · 2020-11-29

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ENRICH DELIGHT Closed strongly 1.20.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 4 8.4 1
2 0 BALLISTIC KING Closed strongly N Callan · K H Ting 2 7.1 1
3 0 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B1/TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 7 71.0 1-1/4
4 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 13 42.0 1-1/2
5 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG Led early B K H Chan · K L Man 12 23.0 2
6 0 HEALTHY HAPPY V C Schofield · F C Lor 8 2.9 2-1/4
7 0 SHADOW HERO Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 4.3 2-1/2
8 0 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly E/TT B Shinn · J Size 6 40.0 2-1/2
9 0 BEAUTY RUSH E V Borges · J Size 1 8.7 4-1/4
10 0 WATER DIVINER Closed strongly B/H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 11 60.0 5
11 0 TEMPLE OF HEAVEN XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 10.0 5
12 0 SUPER STAR TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 9 46.0 8-3/4
13 0 HAPPY FUN B/TT2 K C Leung · C H Yip 3 62.0 10-1/2
14 0 BERLIN TANGO TT1 C Wong · A S Cruz 14 106.0 12-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-29 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ENRICH DELIGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with BALLISTIC KING second and TOURBILLON DIAMOND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite HEALTHY HAPPY finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENRICH DELIGHT—2. BALLISTIC KING+1L3. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+1.25L4. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+1.5L5. STAR OF YUEN LONG+2L6. HEALTHY HAPPY+2.25L7. SHADOW HERO+2.5L8. BEAUTY LEGACY+2.5L9. BEAUTY RUSH+4.25L10. WATER DIVINER+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HEALTHY HAPPY (24.4%) finished 6th — the winner ENRICH DELIGHT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HEALTHY HAPPY 24.4% 4.09 6
2 0 TEMPLE OF HEAVEN 19.7% 5.07 11
3 0 BEAUTY RUSH 9.9% 10.14 9
4 0 SHADOW HERO 8.5% 11.79 7
5 0 ENRICH DELIGHT 8.0% 12.50 1
6 0 BALLISTIC KING 6.4% 15.60 2
7 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 4.7% 21.33 4
8 0 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 4.0% 24.75 3
9 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG 3.3% 30.26 5
10 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 2.6% 39.20 8
11 0 BERLIN TANGO 2.5% 39.80 14
12 0 SUPER STAR 2.4% 41.35 12
13 0 WATER DIVINER 2.0% 50.59 10
14 0 HAPPY FUN 1.6% 61.75 13
HEALTHY HAPPYTEMPLE OF HEAVENBEAUTY RUSHSHADOW HEROENRICH DELIGHT — wonBALLISTIC KINGINVINCIBLE MISSILETOURBILLON DIAMONDSTAR OF YUEN LONGBEAUTY LEGACYBERLIN TANGOSUPER STARWATER DIVINERHAPPY FUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 84

PLACE

1 20

8 130

9 26

QUINELLA

1,9 270

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 505.5

1,9 99.5

8,9 724

FORECAST

9,1 641

TIERCE

9,1,8 18,612

TRIO

1,8,9 2,437

FIRST 4

1,8,9,11 31,879

QUARTET

9,1,8,11 452,336

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 28.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,13,14/1,8,9 85,686

9TH DOUBLE

14/1 30

14/9 285

SIX UP

7,11/2,5/11,12/1,2/3,14/1,9 4,712

11/2/12/2/14/9 1,249,654

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

2/14/1 856

2/14/9 9,590