沙田 · 2021-01-01
第 11場
2021-01-01沙田第11場，Class 2，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CIRCUIT THREE勝出，贏出1-1/4。MAXIMUS獲得亞軍；LUCKY EXPRESS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CIRCUIT THREE 後段發力 B/TT 1.35.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | MAXIMUS 後段發力 SR C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY EXPRESS 後段發力 E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | ALPHA HEDGE CP V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 1 | 91.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | STAR SHINE 後段發力 B-/TT A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 4 | 41.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT 後段發力 XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 11 | 6.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | PACKING WALTHAM 後段發力 CP/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 14 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 13 | 52.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 12 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 14 | THE ROCK M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 9 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | SUPER OASIS B/XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM TT1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 70.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | THE SUMMIT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 59.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | KING OPIE 早段領放 V C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 3 | 148.0 | 11-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CIRCUIT THREE | 22.1% | 4.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 14 | THE ROCK | 15.8% | 6.33 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 14.3% | 7.00 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | PACKING WALTHAM | 12.7% | 7.86 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT | 9.2% | 10.87 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | SUPER OASIS | 5.2% | 19.26 | 11 |
| 7 | 13 | MAXIMUS | 4.9% | 20.27 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 3.9% | 25.50 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | ASSIMILATE | 2.9% | 34.26 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | KING OPIE | 2.3% | 43.89 | 14 |
| 11 | 4 | STAR SHINE | 2.2% | 45.78 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | ALPHA HEDGE | 2.0% | 51.04 | 4 |
| 13 | 7 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 1.5% | 68.04 | 12 |
| 14 | 5 | THE SUMMIT | 1.0% | 98.72 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 28
PLACE
3 14
8 13.5
13 28
QUINELLA
8,13 144.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 23.5
3,13 64
8,13 54.5
FORECAST
8,13 315
TIERCE
8,13,3 860
TRIO
3,8,13 120
FIRST 4
3,8,10,13 2,163
QUARTET
8,13,3,10 27,087
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
7/8 341.5
7/13 168.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
7,10,12/3,8,13 27,383
SIX UP
12/7/5/3/7/8 969,876
12,14/7,13/5,8/3,8/7,12/8,13 14,322
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
3/7/8 1,014
3/7/13 707