Sha Tin · 2021-01-01
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-01 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT THREE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with MAXIMUS second and LUCKY EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT 1.35.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | MAXIMUS Closed strongly SR C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | ALPHA HEDGE CP V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 1 | 91.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | STAR SHINE Closed strongly B-/TT A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 4 | 41.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 11 | 6.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly CP/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 14 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 13 | 52.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 12 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 14 | THE ROCK M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 9 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | SUPER OASIS B/XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM TT1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 70.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | THE SUMMIT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 59.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | KING OPIE Led early V C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 3 | 148.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CIRCUIT THREE | 22.1% | 4.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 14 | THE ROCK | 15.8% | 6.33 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 14.3% | 7.00 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | PACKING WALTHAM | 12.7% | 7.86 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT | 9.2% | 10.87 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | SUPER OASIS | 5.2% | 19.26 | 11 |
| 7 | 13 | MAXIMUS | 4.9% | 20.27 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 3.9% | 25.50 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | ASSIMILATE | 2.9% | 34.26 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | KING OPIE | 2.3% | 43.89 | 14 |
| 11 | 4 | STAR SHINE | 2.2% | 45.78 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | ALPHA HEDGE | 2.0% | 51.04 | 4 |
| 13 | 7 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 1.5% | 68.04 | 12 |
| 14 | 5 | THE SUMMIT | 1.0% | 98.72 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 28
PLACE
3 14
8 13.5
13 28
QUINELLA
8,13 144.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 23.5
3,13 64
8,13 54.5
FORECAST
8,13 315
TIERCE
8,13,3 860
TRIO
3,8,13 120
FIRST 4
3,8,10,13 2,163
QUARTET
8,13,3,10 27,087
All pools (5 more)
10TH DOUBLE
7/8 341.5
7/13 168.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
7,10,12/3,8,13 27,383
SIX UP
12/7/5/3/7/8 969,876
12,14/7,13/5,8/3,8/7,12/8,13 14,322
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
3/7/8 1,014
3/7/13 707