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Sha Tin · 2021-01-01

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-01 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA RAD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with TEAM SPIRIT second and LOCKHEED third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT 1.09.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 2 2.4 N
2 8 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 13 88.0 N
3 14 LOCKHEED B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 5 12.0 N
4 5 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT V Borges · J Size 4 8.8 1/2
5 2 DUKE WAI B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 3 4.9 3/4
6 4 HONG KONG BET TT N Callan · K H Ting 10 58.0 1-1/4
7 11 GUY DRAGON XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 12.0 1-1/2
8 13 WATER DIVINER B/H/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 11 45.0 1-1/2
9 12 MS ALLY M F Poon · A T Millard 14 90.0 2-1/4
10 9 HAPPY FUN B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 8 61.0 4
11 1 DECRYPT H-/XB1/TT- B Shinn · D A Hayes 9 21.0 5
12 6 HIGHLAND FORTUNE B C Soumillon · K W Lui 7 8.7 5-1/4
13 7 CZARSON CP/TT Z Purton · P F Yiu 12 12.0 7-1/2
14 10 UGLY WARRIOR H T Mo · Y S Tsui 6 161.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA RAD2. TEAM SPIRIT+0.05L3. LOCKHEED+0.05L4. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+0.5L5. DUKE WAI+0.75L6. HONG KONG BET+1.25L7. GUY DRAGON+1.5L8. WATER DIVINER+1.5L9. MS ALLY+2.25L10. HAPPY FUN+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CZARSON (25.4%) finished 13th — the winner CALIFORNIA RAD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CZARSON 25.4% 3.93 13
2 3 CALIFORNIA RAD 18.2% 5.49 1
3 14 LOCKHEED 13.6% 7.37 3
4 6 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 11.1% 9.01 12
5 5 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 7.1% 14.14 4
6 2 DUKE WAI 5.8% 17.20 5
7 11 GUY DRAGON 3.7% 26.71 7
8 4 HONG KONG BET 3.2% 31.01 6
9 1 DECRYPT 2.7% 36.53 11
10 10 UGLY WARRIOR 2.7% 37.23 14
11 12 MS ALLY 2.0% 51.20 9
12 8 TEAM SPIRIT 1.8% 55.63 2
13 9 HAPPY FUN 1.7% 58.10 10
14 13 WATER DIVINER 0.9% 109.68 8
CZARSONCALIFORNIA RAD — wonLOCKHEEDHIGHLAND FORTUNEBEAUTY APPLAUSEDUKE WAIGUY DRAGONHONG KONG BETDECRYPTUGLY WARRIORMS ALLYTEAM SPIRITHAPPY FUNWATER DIVINER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 24

PLACE

3 13.5

8 189.5

14 35

QUINELLA

3,8 1,113

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 351.5

3,14 59

8,14 816

FORECAST

3,8 1,812

TIERCE

3,8,14 13,953

TRIO

3,8,14 1,934

FIRST 4

3,5,8,14 3,358

QUARTET

3,8,14,5 72,500

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A2

A3

8TH DOUBLE

5/3 345.5

5/8 700.5