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Sha Tin · 2021-01-01

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly TT 1.20.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 2 8.7 1-1/4
2 0 SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 1 3.1 1-1/4
3 0 MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B Z Purton · P F Yiu 4 4.9 2
4 0 FAT TURTLE Closed strongly B A Badel · F C Lor 3 22.0 3-1/2
5 0 KA YING STAR V/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 7 29.0 4-3/4
6 0 WINNING DREAMER C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 2.6 5-1/4
7 0 BUDDIES H/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 8 10.0 10
8 0 KINGS SHIELD Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor 6 67.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-01 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHAMPION'S WAY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with SKY DARCI second and MIGHTY GIANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite WINNING DREAMER finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHAMPION'S WAY—2. SKY DARCI+1.25L3. MIGHTY GIANT+2L4. FAT TURTLE+3.5L5. KA YING STAR+4.75L6. WINNING DREAMER+5.25L7. BUDDIES+10L8. KINGS SHIELD+12L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY DARCI (29.4%) finished 2nd — the winner CHAMPION'S WAY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SKY DARCI 29.4% 3.41 2
2 0 WINNING DREAMER 27.3% 3.66 6
3 0 MIGHTY GIANT 16.0% 6.26 3
4 0 BUDDIES 11.4% 8.74 7
5 0 FAT TURTLE 4.9% 20.28 4
6 0 CHAMPION'S WAY 4.2% 23.62 1
7 0 KA YING STAR 4.0% 25.07 5
8 0 KINGS SHIELD 2.8% 36.30 8
SKY DARCIWINNING DREAMERMIGHTY GIANTBUDDIESFAT TURTLECHAMPION'S WAY — wonKA YING STARKINGS SHIELD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 87

PLACE

4 15

5 21

8 11

QUINELLA

5,8 123.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 48

4,8 27

5,8 46

FORECAST

5,8 394

TIERCE

5,8,4 1,189

TRIO

4,5,8 185

FIRST 4

3,4,5,8 345

QUARTET

5,8,4,3 9,440

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,13/4,5,8 17,205

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 27.5

A3 —

7TH DOUBLE

7/5 1,232.5

7/8 71

WINNING TRAINER

B2 —

B3 16

B1 —