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Sha Tin · 2021-01-01

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND RHYME, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with WINS ALL second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DIAMOND RHYME Closed strongly XB 1.22.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 3.0 1/2
2 11 WINS ALL Led early TT K Teetan · W Y So 9 4.9 1/2
3 4 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 14 11.0 1-3/4
4 7 DONC JE SUIS Closed strongly CP B Shinn · D A Hayes 7 87.0 2-1/2
5 14 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT A Badel · J Size 10 60.0 3
6 3 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 11 12.0 3-1/2
7 1 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT Z Purton · K L Man 3 3.8 3-3/4
8 2 MONSTER KAKA C L Chau · D J Hall 5 9.2 4
9 9 PRECISION DREAM H H T Mo · T P Yung 6 333.0 5-3/4
10 13 CRUCIATUS XB/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 12 192.0 6-3/4
11 10 SUPER BULLET B/TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 4 74.0 8
12 5 CIGARY B1 T Piccone · Y S Tsui 2 44.0 9-1/4
13 8 OURGOLDENRULES XB V Borges · D J Whyte 8 180.0 9-3/4
12 NATURAL WINNER CP/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 13 18.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND RHYME2. WINS ALL+0.5L3. MASTER HERO+1.75L4. DONC JE SUIS+2.5L5. DIAMOND STAR+3L6. EL JEFE+3.5L7. HELLO BEAUTY+3.75L8. MONSTER KAKA+4L9. PRECISION DREAM+5.75L10. CRUCIATUS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MASTER HERO (24.1%) finished 3rd — the winner DIAMOND RHYME was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MASTER HERO 24.1% 4.15 3
2 1 HELLO BEAUTY 19.6% 5.11 7
3 11 WINS ALL 15.5% 6.45 2
4 2 MONSTER KAKA 13.8% 7.25 8
5 6 DIAMOND RHYME 12.1% 8.29 1
6 3 EL JEFE 4.5% 22.22 6
7 14 DIAMOND STAR 3.1% 32.65 5
8 10 SUPER BULLET 1.9% 52.45 11
9 5 CIGARY 1.8% 54.44 12
10 8 OURGOLDENRULES 1.6% 62.95 13
11 7 DONC JE SUIS 1.0% 97.02 4
12 13 CRUCIATUS 0.7% 152.38 10
13 9 PRECISION DREAM 0.4% 256.44 9
MASTER HEROHELLO BEAUTYWINS ALLMONSTER KAKADIAMOND RHYME — wonEL JEFEDIAMOND STARSUPER BULLETCIGARYOURGOLDENRULESDONC JE SUISCRUCIATUSPRECISION DREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 30

PLACE

4 36

6 12.5

11 18

QUINELLA

6,11 81

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 59

4,11 101.5

6,11 29

FORECAST

6,11 132

TIERCE

6,11,4 1,057

TRIO

4,6,11 294

FIRST 4

4,6,7,11 3,209

QUARTET

6,11,4,7 36,762

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/6 104

8/11 22

3 PICK 1

A2 16

A3

A1