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Sha Tin · 2021-01-01

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DIAMOND RHYME Closed strongly XB 1.22.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 3.0 1/2
2 0 WINS ALL Led early TT K Teetan · W Y So 9 4.9 1/2
3 0 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 14 11.0 1-3/4
4 0 DONC JE SUIS Closed strongly CP B Shinn · D A Hayes 7 87.0 2-1/2
5 0 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT A Badel · J Size 10 60.0 3
6 0 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 11 12.0 3-1/2
7 0 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT Z Purton · K L Man 3 3.8 3-3/4
8 0 MONSTER KAKA C L Chau · D J Hall 5 9.2 4
9 0 PRECISION DREAM H H T Mo · T P Yung 6 333.0 5-3/4
10 0 CRUCIATUS XB/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 12 192.0 6-3/4
11 0 SUPER BULLET B/TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 4 74.0 8
12 0 CIGARY B1 T Piccone · Y S Tsui 2 44.0 9-1/4
13 0 OURGOLDENRULES XB V Borges · D J Whyte 8 180.0 9-3/4
— 0 NATURAL WINNER CP/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 13 18.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND RHYME, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with WINS ALL second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND RHYME—2. WINS ALL+0.5L3. MASTER HERO+1.75L4. DONC JE SUIS+2.5L5. DIAMOND STAR+3L6. EL JEFE+3.5L7. HELLO BEAUTY+3.75L8. MONSTER KAKA+4L9. PRECISION DREAM+5.75L10. CRUCIATUS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MASTER HERO (24.1%) finished 3rd — the winner DIAMOND RHYME was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MASTER HERO 24.1% 4.15 3
2 0 HELLO BEAUTY 19.6% 5.11 7
3 0 WINS ALL 15.5% 6.45 2
4 0 MONSTER KAKA 13.8% 7.25 8
5 0 DIAMOND RHYME 12.1% 8.29 1
6 0 EL JEFE 4.5% 22.22 6
7 0 DIAMOND STAR 3.1% 32.65 5
8 0 SUPER BULLET 1.9% 52.45 11
9 0 CIGARY 1.8% 54.44 12
10 0 OURGOLDENRULES 1.6% 62.95 13
11 0 DONC JE SUIS 1.0% 97.02 4
12 0 CRUCIATUS 0.7% 152.38 10
13 0 PRECISION DREAM 0.4% 256.44 9
MASTER HEROHELLO BEAUTYWINS ALLMONSTER KAKADIAMOND RHYME — wonEL JEFEDIAMOND STARSUPER BULLETCIGARYOURGOLDENRULESDONC JE SUISCRUCIATUSPRECISION DREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 30

PLACE

4 36

6 12.5

11 18

QUINELLA

6,11 81

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 59

4,11 101.5

6,11 29

FORECAST

6,11 132

TIERCE

6,11,4 1,057

TRIO

4,6,11 294

FIRST 4

4,6,7,11 3,209

QUARTET

6,11,4,7 36,762

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/6 104

8/11 22

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 16