Sha Tin · 2021-01-01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-01 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with STRONGER second and BIG PARTY third. The 1.6 favourite COMPUTER PATCH finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 0.56.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 7.5 | N |
| 2 | 4 | STRONGER CP/XB/TT C Soumillon · D J Whyte | C Soumillon | D J Whyte | 3 | 3.3 | N |
| 3 | 2 | BIG PARTY K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 2 | 11.0 | N |
| 4 | 3 | AMAZING STAR T Piccone · K H Ting | T Piccone | K H Ting | 1 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | COMPUTER PATCH TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 5 | 1.6 | 2-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COMPUTER PATCH | 47.8% | 2.09 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | STRONGER | 17.2% | 5.82 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 16.1% | 6.22 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | BIG PARTY | 10.1% | 9.88 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | AMAZING STAR | 8.8% | 11.40 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 75
PLACE
4 15
5 25.5
QUINELLA
4,5 96.5
FORECAST
5,4 299
TIERCE
5,4,2 1,296
TRIO
2,4,5 257
2ND DOUBLE
6/4 21
6/5 259