沙田 · 2021-03-28
第 10場
2021-03-28沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C L Chau策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的DUKE WAI勝出，贏出N。THE CROWN獲得亞軍；LUCKY PATCH獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門LUCKY PATCH跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DUKE WAI B/H 1.08.28 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 6.4 | N |
| 2 | 13 | THE CROWN M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 11 | 32.0 | N |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY PATCH B/H M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 4 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | HINCHINLOVE B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 10 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | WIND N GRASS TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 9 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 6 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 1 | 23.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 7 | 8.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | PING HAI BRAVO E/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | WIND SPEEDER H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 13 | 312.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | SUNNY BOY B/TT H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 2 | 143.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | LOCKHEED B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 12 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | SEATTLE CHOICE K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 3 | 6.6 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 7 | CZARSON CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 14 | 102.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 17.0% | 5.88 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | SEATTLE CHOICE | 15.0% | 6.67 | 13 |
| 3 | 8 | WIND N GRASS | 13.1% | 7.63 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | DUKE WAI | 10.1% | 9.89 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | LUCKY PATCH | 8.9% | 11.29 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | PING HAI BRAVO | 8.3% | 12.03 | 9 |
| 7 | 11 | LOCKHEED | 7.5% | 13.34 | 12 |
| 8 | 10 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 4.9% | 20.29 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | HINCHINLOVE | 4.6% | 21.71 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | THE CROWN | 3.5% | 28.62 | 2 |
| 11 | 7 | CZARSON | 2.9% | 34.82 | 14 |
| 12 | 6 | RACING FIGHTER | 2.6% | 38.83 | 7 |
| 13 | 9 | SUNNY BOY | 1.1% | 93.34 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | WIND SPEEDER | 0.6% | 173.71 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 64
PLACE
1 19
3 14
13 79.5
QUINELLA
1,13 951.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 42
1,13 266.5
3,13 184
FORECAST
1,13 1,545
TIERCE
1,13,3 7,711
TRIO
1,3,13 1,339
FIRST 4
1,3,12,13 1,697
QUARTET
1,13,3,12 48,941
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,10/1,3,13 422,778
9TH DOUBLE
4/1 577
4/13 354.5
SIX UP
3,13/6,12/8,11/7,10/3,4/1,13 28,450
13/6/11/7/4/1 1,681,132
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
7/4/1 3,135
7/4/13 4,331