沙田 · 2021-05-02
第 5場
2021-05-02沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、A T Millard訓練的ULTRA EXPRESS勝出，贏出1-1/4。ROBOT WARRIOR獲得亞軍；COPARTNER ERA獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ULTRA EXPRESS 後段發力 TT 1.34.46 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 1 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | ROBOT WARRIOR 後段發力 V Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | COPARTNER ERA 後段發力 B A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 9 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MORE THAN A HORSE 後段發力 B/SR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | DANDY YEARS 早段領放 B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 3 | 8.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | FREE FOAL M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 13 | 8.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 14 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 14 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | RED IMPACT 後段發力 CP- C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 11 | 108.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | RUN RUN GOOD B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 2 | 35.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 13 | MULTIPLE STAR TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 5 | 269.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | DIAMOND PIXIU M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 7 | 221.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 5 | TELECOM ELITE B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 64.0 | 17 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ULTRA EXPRESS | 37.2% | 2.69 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | ROBOT WARRIOR | 19.3% | 5.18 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | DANDY YEARS | 17.3% | 5.77 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | FREE FOAL | 6.2% | 16.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 14 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT | 4.2% | 23.84 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | LEADING FORTUNE | 3.5% | 28.79 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | COPARTNER ERA | 3.3% | 29.89 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 2.7% | 37.68 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | RUN RUN GOOD | 2.2% | 46.32 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 1.7% | 58.78 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | RED IMPACT | 1.1% | 87.05 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | TELECOM ELITE | 0.6% | 154.26 | 14 |
| 13 | 10 | DIAMOND PIXIU | 0.4% | 258.48 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | MULTIPLE STAR | 0.3% | 389.88 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 24
PLACE
3 13.5
6 22
12 42.5
QUINELLA
3,6 51.5
3,12 111
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 44
3,12 77
6,12 197
FORECAST
3,6 84
3,12 180
TIERCE
3,6,12 937
3,12,6 1,089
TRIO
3,6,12 526
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 1,238
QUARTET
3,6,12,4 8,053
3,12,6,4 8,205
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,12/3,6,12 4,540
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/3 341
2/6 78
2/12 150