Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. ULTRA EXPRESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with ROBOT WARRIOR second and COPARTNER ERA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly TT 1.34.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard 1 2.4 1-1/4
2 6 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V Z Purton · P F Yiu 10 7.0 1-1/4
2 12 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So 9 15.0 1-1/4
4 4 MORE THAN A HORSE Closed strongly B/SR C L Chau · D J Whyte 12 11.0 1-3/4
5 1 DANDY YEARS Led early B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 3 8.6 2
6 9 FREE FOAL M Chadwick · F C Lor 13 8.5 2-1/4
7 2 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 14 16.0 2-3/4
8 14 SEIZE THE SPIRIT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 6 10.0 5-1/4
9 8 RED IMPACT Closed strongly CP- C Y Ho · D A Hayes 11 108.0 5-3/4
10 11 RUN RUN GOOD B K C Leung · K L Man 8 20.0 6
11 7 HAPPY WIN WIN TT K H Chan · C H Yip 2 35.0 7
12 13 MULTIPLE STAR TT H N Wong · C H Yip 5 269.0 9-1/4
13 10 DIAMOND PIXIU M L Yeung · P F Yiu 7 221.0 10-1/4
14 5 TELECOM ELITE B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 4 64.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ULTRA EXPRESS2. ROBOT WARRIOR+1.25L2. COPARTNER ERA+1.25L4. MORE THAN A HORSE+1.75L5. DANDY YEARS+2L6. FREE FOAL+2.25L7. LEADING FORTUNE+2.75L8. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+5.25L9. RED IMPACT+5.75L10. RUN RUN GOOD+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ULTRA EXPRESS (37.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ULTRA EXPRESS 37.2% 2.69 1
2 6 ROBOT WARRIOR 19.3% 5.18 2
3 1 DANDY YEARS 17.3% 5.77 5
4 9 FREE FOAL 6.2% 16.23 6
5 14 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 4.2% 23.84 8
6 2 LEADING FORTUNE 3.5% 28.79 7
7 12 COPARTNER ERA 3.3% 29.89 2
8 4 MORE THAN A HORSE 2.7% 37.68 4
9 11 RUN RUN GOOD 2.2% 46.32 10
10 7 HAPPY WIN WIN 1.7% 58.78 11
11 8 RED IMPACT 1.1% 87.05 9
12 5 TELECOM ELITE 0.6% 154.26 14
13 10 DIAMOND PIXIU 0.4% 258.48 13
14 13 MULTIPLE STAR 0.3% 389.88 12
ULTRA EXPRESS — wonROBOT WARRIORDANDY YEARSFREE FOALSEIZE THE SPIRITLEADING FORTUNECOPARTNER ERAMORE THAN A HORSERUN RUN GOODHAPPY WIN WINRED IMPACTTELECOM ELITEDIAMOND PIXIUMULTIPLE STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 24

PLACE

3 13.5

6 22

12 42.5

QUINELLA

3,6 51.5

3,12 111

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 44

3,12 77

6,12 197

FORECAST

3,6 84

3,12 180

TIERCE

3,6,12 937

3,12,6 1,089

TRIO

3,6,12 526

FIRST 4

3,4,6,12 1,238

QUARTET

3,6,12,4 8,053

3,12,6,4 8,205

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,12/3,6,12 4,540

3 PICK 1

A1 18

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

2/3 341

2/6 78

2/12 150