Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course B 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS SIX, ridden by T Piccone and trained by R Gibson, won by 3/4, with TURBO POWER second and SMART IDEA third. The 2.1 favourite SMART IDEA finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.06

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	CORDYCEPS SIX B 0.57.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · R Gibson	T Piccone	R Gibson	8	121 lb	108.0	3/4
2	1	TURBO POWER C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	133 lb	3.9	3/4
3	9	SMART IDEA J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	10	121 lb	2.1	1-1/2
4	6	CHEVAL VALIANT XB1/TT1 B Shinn · D J Whyte	B Shinn	D J Whyte	3	121 lb	18.0	2-1/2
5	10	SUPER KINGDOM K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	5	121 lb	26.0	2-3/4
6	8	MIRACLE VICTORY C Schofield · D A Hayes	C Schofield	D A Hayes	1	121 lb	17.0	3-1/2
7	5	HK DRAGON B C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	4	119 lb	3.7	4-1/4
8	4	HANG'S CHOICE H1/TT1 M L Yeung · W Y So	M L Yeung	W Y So	9	126 lb	126.0	8
9	2	CHIU CHOW WARRIOR A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	2	126 lb	22.0	9
10	3	GO SING B1 R Maia · C S Shum	R Maia	C S Shum	7	126 lb	103.0	11

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SMART IDEA (25.7%) finished 3rd — the winner CORDYCEPS SIX was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	SMART IDEA	25.7%	3.89	3	2.1
2	5	HK DRAGON	23.0%	4.35	7	3.7
3	1	TURBO POWER	20.1%	4.98	2	3.9
4	6	CHEVAL VALIANT	13.1%	7.62	4	18.0
5	8	MIRACLE VICTORY	5.7%	17.40	6	17.0
6	2	CHIU CHOW WARRIOR	5.1%	19.54	9	22.0
7	3	GO SING	2.9%	33.92	10	103.0
8	10	SUPER KINGDOM	2.2%	46.27	5	26.0
9	7	CORDYCEPS SIX	1.4%	72.78	1	108.0
10	4	HANG'S CHOICE	0.8%	130.81	8	126.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 1,089

PLACE

1 15

7 141.5

9 10.1

QUINELLA

1,7 2,601.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 476.5

1,9 19.5

7,9 301

FORECAST

7,1 7,367

TIERCE

7,1,9 11,409

TRIO

1,7,9 1,107

FIRST 4

1,6,7,9 1,376

QUARTET

7,1,9,6 64,963

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 92

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99