Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly 1.21.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · D A Hayes 2 2.4 2-1/4
2 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 3 10.0 2-1/4
3 0 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly SR/XB/CP2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 12.0 2-1/4
4 0 KASI FARASI Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 4 6.4 3-1/2
5 0 C P BRAVE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard 6 12.0 4
6 0 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly B/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 9 74.0 4-3/4
7 0 WIN WIN Closed strongly B R Maia · T P Yung 8 24.0 5
8 0 ALL FOR SOUTH Led early B Z Purton · F C Lor 1 5.3 6-1/2
9 0 LEAP OF FAITH B- A Hamelin · J Size 10 21.0 8-1/2
10 0 APACHE PASS H Bentley · P O'Sullivan 5 89.0 9-1/2
11 0 AMAZING NEWS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 12.0 11
12 0 ROYAL AGILITY TT2 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 182.0 13-3/4
— 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT M F Poon · A S Cruz — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC TREASURE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/4, with COMPASSION SPIRIT second and UNCLE STEVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC TREASURE—2. COMPASSION SPIRIT+2.25L3. UNCLE STEVE+2.25L4. KASI FARASI+3.5L5. C P BRAVE+4L6. SUPER ELEGANCE+4.75L7. WIN WIN+5L8. ALL FOR SOUTH+6.5L9. LEAP OF FAITH+8.5L10. APACHE PASS+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KASI FARASI (28.3%) finished 4th — the winner FANTASTIC TREASURE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KASI FARASI 28.3% 3.54 4
2 0 FANTASTIC TREASURE 26.4% 3.79 1
3 0 ALL FOR SOUTH 12.3% 8.15 8
4 0 UNCLE STEVE 7.5% 13.29 3
5 0 AMAZING NEWS 5.5% 18.16 11
6 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 5.4% 18.64 2
7 0 C P BRAVE 4.2% 23.75 5
8 0 LEAP OF FAITH 4.2% 23.97 9
9 0 APACHE PASS 2.5% 39.29 10
10 0 WIN WIN 2.0% 49.45 7
11 0 SUPER ELEGANCE 1.3% 78.49 6
12 0 ROYAL AGILITY 0.5% 198.20 12
KASI FARASIFANTASTIC TREASURE — wonALL FOR SOUTHUNCLE STEVEAMAZING NEWSCOMPASSION SPIRITC P BRAVELEAP OF FAITHAPACHE PASSWIN WINSUPER ELEGANCEROYAL AGILITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 13

2 29.5

10 26.5

QUINELLA

1,10 149

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 44.5

1,10 56

2,10 145.5

FORECAST

1,10 228

TIERCE

1,10,2 1,418

TRIO

1,2,10 433

FIRST 4

1,2,9,10 301

QUARTET

1,10,2,9 4,586

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

11/1 78.5

11/10 83

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3 —

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,11/1,2,10 6,115

SIX UP

3,5/4,10/1,8/2,3,5/1,11/1,10 8,853

5/4/8/3,5/11/1 3,245,738

4 [A Badel] —

TREBLE

3,5/11/1 265

3,5/11/10 540