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Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 12 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC TREASURE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/4, with COMPASSION SPIRIT second and UNCLE STEVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly 1.21.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · D A Hayes 2 2.4 2-1/4
2 10 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 3 10.0 2-1/4
3 2 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly SR/XB/CP2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 12.0 2-1/4
4 9 KASI FARASI Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 4 6.4 3-1/2
5 3 C P BRAVE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard 6 12.0 4
6 13 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly B/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 9 74.0 4-3/4
7 7 WIN WIN Closed strongly B R Maia · T P Yung 8 24.0 5
8 6 ALL FOR SOUTH Led early B Z Purton · F C Lor 1 5.3 6-1/2
9 12 LEAP OF FAITH B- A Hamelin · J Size 10 21.0 8-1/2
10 4 APACHE PASS H Bentley · P O'Sullivan 5 89.0 9-1/2
11 8 AMAZING NEWS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 12.0 11
12 5 ROYAL AGILITY TT2 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 182.0 13-3/4
11 BEAUTY SPIRIT M F Poon · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC TREASURE2. COMPASSION SPIRIT+2.25L3. UNCLE STEVE+2.25L4. KASI FARASI+3.5L5. C P BRAVE+4L6. SUPER ELEGANCE+4.75L7. WIN WIN+5L8. ALL FOR SOUTH+6.5L9. LEAP OF FAITH+8.5L10. APACHE PASS+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KASI FARASI (28.3%) finished 4th — the winner FANTASTIC TREASURE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 KASI FARASI 28.3% 3.54 4
2 1 FANTASTIC TREASURE 26.4% 3.79 1
3 6 ALL FOR SOUTH 12.3% 8.15 8
4 2 UNCLE STEVE 7.5% 13.29 3
5 8 AMAZING NEWS 5.5% 18.16 11
6 10 COMPASSION SPIRIT 5.4% 18.64 2
7 3 C P BRAVE 4.2% 23.75 5
8 12 LEAP OF FAITH 4.2% 23.97 9
9 4 APACHE PASS 2.5% 39.29 10
10 7 WIN WIN 2.0% 49.45 7
11 13 SUPER ELEGANCE 1.3% 78.49 6
12 5 ROYAL AGILITY 0.5% 198.20 12
KASI FARASIFANTASTIC TREASURE — wonALL FOR SOUTHUNCLE STEVEAMAZING NEWSCOMPASSION SPIRITC P BRAVELEAP OF FAITHAPACHE PASSWIN WINSUPER ELEGANCEROYAL AGILITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 13

2 29.5

10 26.5

QUINELLA

1,10 149

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 44.5

1,10 56

2,10 145.5

FORECAST

1,10 228

TIERCE

1,10,2 1,418

TRIO

1,2,10 433

FIRST 4

1,2,9,10 301

QUARTET

1,10,2,9 4,586

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

11/1 78.5

11/10 83

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,11/1,2,10 6,115

SIX UP

3,5/4,10/1,8/2,3,5/1,11/1,10 8,853

5/4/8/3,5/11/1 3,245,738

4 [A Badel]

TREBLE

3,5/11/1 265

3,5/11/10 540