Sha Tin · 2021-05-02
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with CALIFORNIA TEN second and BLASTOISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly 1.47.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 10 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | BLASTOISE CP V Borges · D E Ferraris | V Borges | D E Ferraris | 7 | 48.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | RIGHT CHOICE B B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 13 | GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly H/XB/TT R Maia · A S Cruz | R Maia | A S Cruz | 8 | 34.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | VINCY Closed strongly CP/SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 11 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | ARROGANT B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 13 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | FLYING MIGHTY CP- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B-/V1/TT H Bentley · Y S Tsui | H Bentley | Y S Tsui | 12 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | PARTERRE Led early B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 1 | 32.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | TANGMERE TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 34.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | ENZEMBLE H/XB K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 33.0 | 12-1/4 |
| — | 5 | LONDON HALL M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BEAUTY FIT | 32.4% | 3.09 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | LOOKING GREAT | 25.3% | 3.95 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | ARROGANT | 9.1% | 10.93 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 6.1% | 16.29 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | RIGHT CHOICE | 5.7% | 17.65 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | VINCY | 4.5% | 22.26 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | TANGMERE | 4.0% | 24.90 | 12 |
| 8 | 14 | FLYING MIGHTY | 3.8% | 26.33 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 2.5% | 40.48 | 10 |
| 10 | 13 | GOD OF DRAGON | 2.1% | 48.48 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | BLASTOISE | 1.9% | 53.49 | 3 |
| 12 | 4 | PARTERRE | 1.4% | 69.65 | 11 |
| 13 | 9 | ENZEMBLE | 1.2% | 83.64 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 30
PLACE
2 17.5
3 14.5
10 114.5
QUINELLA
2,3 96.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 38
2,10 586
3,10 402
FORECAST
3,2 130
TIERCE
3,2,10 4,533
TRIO
2,3,10 2,057
FIRST 4
2,3,6,10 1,651
QUARTET
3,2,10,6 29,212
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5
8TH DOUBLE
8/2 93
8/3,5 278.5