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Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 2000m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 2.01.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MCMUNIGAL Closed strongly B/TT 2.01.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D E Ferraris 2 21.0 1-1/4
2 0 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H A Badel · C W Chang 4 6.2 1-1/4
3 0 AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · L Ho 3 5.3 2-1/4
4 0 SOCCER MASTER Led early B/TT R Maia · W Y So 1 36.0 3-1/2
5 0 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 9 10.0 3-3/4
6 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 20.0 5-1/2
7 0 AEROSONIC P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 7 31.0 5-1/2
8 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 14 7.3 7-3/4
9 0 JIMMU SR Z Purton · Y S Tsui 8 4.9 8-1/4
10 0 GOOD DAYS B- C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 10.0 9-3/4
11 0 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE CP-/H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 13 15.0 10-1/4
12 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B T Piccone · K H Ting 12 39.0 10-1/4
13 0 REEVE'S MUNTJAC B/XB/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 11 26.0 10-3/4
14 0 STAR WIN P-/SR1/CP2/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 10 21.0 16

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. MCMUNIGAL, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1-1/4, with THE JOY OF GIVING second and AMAZING AGILITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite JIMMU finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MCMUNIGAL—2. THE JOY OF GIVING+1.25L3. AMAZING AGILITY+2.25L4. SOCCER MASTER+3.5L5. CHEERFUL STAR+3.75L6. JOY N FUN LEGEND+5.5L7. AEROSONIC+5.5L8. SKY GEM+7.75L9. JIMMU+8.25L10. GOOD DAYS+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JIMMU (17.0%) finished 9th — the winner MCMUNIGAL was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JIMMU 17.0% 5.89 9
2 0 SKY GEM 16.2% 6.19 8
3 0 AMAZING AGILITY 14.4% 6.92 3
4 0 GOOD DAYS 9.9% 10.10 10
5 0 CHEERFUL STAR 7.6% 13.11 5
6 0 THE JOY OF GIVING 7.4% 13.60 2
7 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND 6.7% 14.85 6
8 0 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 4.3% 23.46 11
9 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 3.3% 29.94 12
10 0 REEVE'S MUNTJAC 3.1% 32.54 13
11 0 STAR WIN 2.9% 35.03 14
12 0 AEROSONIC 2.7% 36.87 7
13 0 SOCCER MASTER 2.3% 43.78 4
14 0 MCMUNIGAL 2.3% 43.82 1
JIMMUSKY GEMAMAZING AGILITYGOOD DAYSCHEERFUL STARTHE JOY OF GIVINGJOY N FUN LEGENDCIRCUIT NUMBER ONEWEALTHY EMPLOYEEREEVE'S MUNTJACSTAR WINAEROSONICSOCCER MASTERMCMUNIGAL — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 212.5

PLACE

5 19.5

6 56

12 22

QUINELLA

6,12 733

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 170.5

5,12 51.5

6,12 229.5

FORECAST

6,12 1,427

TIERCE

6,12,5 7,717

TRIO

5,6,12 1,010

FIRST 4

5,6,8,12 4,756

QUARTET

6,12,5,8 135,864

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3,6/6 352.5

3,6/12 34.5

3 PICK 1

A3 23.5

A2 —

A1 —