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Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KA YING SPIRIT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with CORRIENTHES second and AUGUST MOON third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 KA YING SPIRIT B1 0.56.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 2.6 SH
2 4 CORRIENTHES SR B Shinn · D E Ferraris 3 31.0 SH
3 8 AUGUST MOON B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 6 62.0 1
4 14 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR CP1/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 5 7.2 1-1/2
5 12 GOODMANSHIP B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 7.7 2-1/4
6 1 DRAGON BABY TT C Schofield · J Size 9 5.4 2-1/2
7 11 ISLAND SUNSHINE PC C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 15.0 4-1/4
8 13 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC M Chadwick · R Gibson 11 7.4 4-1/2
9 7 KABI SMART H1/TT1 H Bentley · W Y So 10 58.0 5
10 2 BLAZING BEAT B M L Yeung · K H Ting 13 68.0 7-3/4
11 10 ENJOY MY LIFE TT R Maia · C H Yip 7 110.0 12-1/2
12 5 FOURAWARRIOR K Teetan · A T Millard 8 12.0 13
13 9 INTENTION H1 H W Lai · L Ho 1 130.0 13-1/4
0 E BROTHER A Badel · K L Man
3 SEVEN HEAVENS J Moreira · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING SPIRIT2. CORRIENTHES+0.1L3. AUGUST MOON+1L4. MAJESTIC CONQUEROR+1.5L5. GOODMANSHIP+2.25L6. DRAGON BABY+2.5L7. ISLAND SUNSHINE+4.25L8. CARRY THE DIAMOND+4.5L9. KABI SMART+5L10. BLAZING BEAT+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DRAGON BABY (21.0%) finished 6th — the winner KA YING SPIRIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DRAGON BABY 21.0% 4.76 6
2 6 KA YING SPIRIT 20.3% 4.94 1
3 14 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR 18.0% 5.55 4
4 11 ISLAND SUNSHINE 8.1% 12.37 7
5 13 CARRY THE DIAMOND 7.5% 13.41 8
6 12 GOODMANSHIP 5.4% 18.46 5
7 7 KABI SMART 5.1% 19.66 9
8 4 CORRIENTHES 3.8% 26.16 2
9 5 FOURAWARRIOR 3.1% 32.20 12
10 9 INTENTION 2.9% 34.37 13
11 2 BLAZING BEAT 2.2% 46.30 10
12 8 AUGUST MOON 1.9% 52.11 3
13 10 ENJOY MY LIFE 0.8% 132.98 11
DRAGON BABYKA YING SPIRIT — wonMAJESTIC CONQUERORISLAND SUNSHINECARRY THE DIAMONDGOODMANSHIPKABI SMARTCORRIENTHESFOURAWARRIORINTENTIONBLAZING BEATAUGUST MOONENJOY MY LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 26

PLACE

4 66

6 14.5

8 137

QUINELLA

4,6 412

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 141.5

4,8 1,498

6,8 220

FORECAST

6,4 657

TIERCE

6,4,8 16,354

TRIO

4,6,8 4,062

FIRST 4

4,6,8,14 6,933

QUARTET

6,4,8,14 135,373

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/3,6 4,863

7/4 5,325.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17.5