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Sha Tin · 2021-05-02

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JADE PHOENIX, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with RHAPSODY second and SMART WONGCHOY third. The 3.1 favourite SMART WONGCHOY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 JADE PHOENIX B 1.09.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 9 10.0 N
2 4 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 5 5.2 N
3 12 SMART WONGCHOY H A Badel · D J Whyte 4 3.1 2-1/2
4 9 TRONIC MIGHTY C Schofield · D A Hayes 3 5.6 2-3/4
5 8 TEAM GOODLUCK TT1 V Borges · W Y So 6 10.0 3-1/2
6 7 MEGA BONUS B1/XB1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 88.0 5
7 14 VOYAGE STAR V/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 10 13.0 5
8 3 MONSTER KAKA TT Z Purton · D J Hall 2 8.2 6-1/2
9 1 SHADOW RUNNER B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 1 9.4 8
10 10 VICTORY MORE H C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 149.0 9-1/2
11 6 EASY FORTUNE M L Yeung · K H Ting 8 187.0 11
12 13 FULL SAILING B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 211.0 11-1/4
13 11 JUMBO ENGINE H T Mo · R Gibson 14 216.0 14
14 5 ALMIGHTY PEGASUS C Wong · C H Yip 12 245.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JADE PHOENIX2. RHAPSODY+0.05L3. SMART WONGCHOY+2.5L4. TRONIC MIGHTY+2.75L5. TEAM GOODLUCK+3.5L6. MEGA BONUS+5L7. VOYAGE STAR+5L8. MONSTER KAKA+6.5L9. SHADOW RUNNER+8L10. VICTORY MORE+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MONSTER KAKA (21.7%) finished 8th — the winner JADE PHOENIX was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MONSTER KAKA 21.7% 4.61 8
2 12 SMART WONGCHOY 17.9% 5.60 3
3 4 RHAPSODY 16.0% 6.25 2
4 1 SHADOW RUNNER 13.3% 7.52 9
5 2 JADE PHOENIX 9.9% 10.08 1
6 7 MEGA BONUS 4.9% 20.60 6
7 14 VOYAGE STAR 4.8% 20.99 7
8 9 TRONIC MIGHTY 4.6% 21.92 4
9 8 TEAM GOODLUCK 3.2% 30.99 5
10 10 VICTORY MORE 1.4% 71.22 10
11 11 JUMBO ENGINE 0.9% 109.33 13
12 13 FULL SAILING 0.6% 154.99 12
13 6 EASY FORTUNE 0.5% 201.16 11
14 5 ALMIGHTY PEGASUS 0.4% 272.49 14
MONSTER KAKASMART WONGCHOYRHAPSODYSHADOW RUNNERJADE PHOENIX — wonMEGA BONUSVOYAGE STARTRONIC MIGHTYTEAM GOODLUCKVICTORY MOREJUMBO ENGINEFULL SAILINGEASY FORTUNEALMIGHTY PEGASUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 109.5

PLACE

2 27.5

4 19

12 14.5

QUINELLA

2,4 284.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 82.5

2,12 61

4,12 35.5

FORECAST

2,4 521

TIERCE

2,4,12 1,368

TRIO

2,4,12 165

FIRST 4

2,4,9,12 376

QUARTET

2,4,12,9 13,528

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 31.5

3RD DOUBLE

6/2 1,767.5

6/4 98.5