Sha Tin · 2021-05-02
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-02 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DECISIVE TWELVE, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with TRILLION WIN second and BIZ POWER third. The 2.6 favourite TRILLION WIN finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT 1.08.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 4.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | TRILLION WIN Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 7 | 2.6 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | BIZ POWER B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | TORNADO TWIST B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | JUNEAU PARK J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 21.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | BIG BROOK K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 2 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | PLEASANT ENDEAVOR K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | MR COLOURFUL TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 1 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 11 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | MOST WELCOME CP V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 12 | 55.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | DAILY BEAUTY TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 108.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 9 | 39.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TRILLION WIN | 23.3% | 4.30 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | PLEASANT ENDEAVOR | 16.7% | 6.00 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 15.4% | 6.49 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | JUNEAU PARK | 13.9% | 7.18 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | TORNADO TWIST | 7.6% | 13.15 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | BIG FORTUNE | 5.5% | 18.10 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | BIZ POWER | 4.5% | 22.01 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | MR COLOURFUL | 4.1% | 24.68 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | BIG BROOK | 3.8% | 26.63 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | DAILY BEAUTY | 1.9% | 51.41 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 1.7% | 58.71 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | MOST WELCOME | 1.6% | 62.90 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 40
PLACE
1 13.5
8 31
11 15.5
QUINELLA
1,11 53
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 79
1,11 27
8,11 76
FORECAST
11,1 166
TIERCE
11,1,8 950
TRIO
1,8,11 250
FIRST 4
1,4,8,11 284
QUARTET
11,1,8,4 4,277
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 16
A3 —
9TH DOUBLE
3,5/1 14
3,5/11 111