沙田 · 2021-06-13
第 11場
2021-06-13沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、A T Millard訓練的ULTRA EXPRESS勝出，贏出1-3/4。SERIOUS LIAISON獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIA TEN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | ULTRA EXPRESS 後段發力 TT 1.33.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 11 | 3.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | SERIOUS LIAISON 後段發力 TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 7 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA TEN 後段發力 CP-/B2/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 早段領放 B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 4 | 7.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 13 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 H Bentley · P O'Sullivan | H Bentley | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 41.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | CHAMPION SUPREME 後段發力 V/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | BEAUTY FIT 後段發力 E Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 3.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SUPER BUDDY 後段發力 B- R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 12 | 90.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | HELENA BABY XB-/P A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 1 | 21.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 11 | BEAUTY DAY B/H H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 10 | 36.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT B1 K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 8 | 52.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 14 | 13.0 | 15 |
| 13 | 8 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B- T Piccone · C H Yip | T Piccone | C H Yip | 2 | 101.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | SHINY ONE B-/CP1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 9 | 102.0 | 23-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | ULTRA EXPRESS | 32.4% | 3.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | BEAUTY FIT | 21.1% | 4.74 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 10.9% | 9.14 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | SERIOUS LIAISON | 10.4% | 9.61 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 8.1% | 12.40 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 6.1% | 16.30 | 12 |
| 7 | 10 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 3.4% | 29.11 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 1.9% | 51.44 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | HELENA BABY | 1.6% | 62.69 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | BEAUTY DAY | 1.3% | 76.15 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 1.1% | 94.24 | 13 |
| 12 | 13 | CASIMIRO | 0.7% | 138.36 | 5 |
| 13 | 9 | SHINY ONE | 0.5% | 185.03 | 14 |
| 14 | 6 | SUPER BUDDY | 0.4% | 271.65 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 30.5
PLACE
1 21.5
4 39.5
14 15
QUINELLA
4,14 231
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 139.5
1,14 44
4,14 85.5
FORECAST
14,4 333
TIERCE
14,4,1 1,758
TRIO
1,4,14 439
FIRST 4
1,3,4,14 469
QUARTET
14,4,1,3 7,489
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
2/4 198
2/14 426
3 PICK 1
A1 17
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,12/1,4,14 134,413
SIX UP
4,5/4,6/7,9/2,4/2,12/4,14 18,851
5/6/9/2/2/14 6,643,485
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
2/2/4 1,979
2/2/14 6,042