沙田 · 2021-07-01
第 10場
2021-07-01沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C L Chau策騎、D J Whyte訓練的FIRST RESPONDER勝出，贏出SH。GOOD VIEW CLARICO獲得亞軍；METRO WARRIOR獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門JOYFUL FORTUNE跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FIRST RESPONDER B 0.55.43 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 11.0 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 3.6 | SH |
| 4 | 6 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 7 | 47.0 | SH |
| 5 | 14 | SUPER WIN DRAGON H/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 6 | 177.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | FLYING HIGH H/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 2 | 50.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | JOYFUL FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 12 | 3.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | IAN C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 8 | 42.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | SPARKLING KNIGHT B1 M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 11 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 5 | 7.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 6.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | SMOKEY BEAR H1 H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 13 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 13 | 8 | EMBARKED H1 K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 4 | 63.0 | 4-1/4 |
| — | 2 | CRUISING K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | JOYFUL FORTUNE | 20.8% | 4.80 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 18.3% | 5.45 | 11 |
| 3 | 4 | METRO WARRIOR | 12.7% | 7.90 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | UNITED WE STAND | 11.9% | 8.43 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | IAN | 10.5% | 9.53 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | FIRST RESPONDER | 6.6% | 15.13 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | EMBARKED | 4.7% | 21.18 | 13 |
| 8 | 13 | SPARKLING KNIGHT | 3.6% | 28.04 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 3.5% | 28.86 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 3.4% | 29.51 | 2 |
| 11 | 1 | SMOKEY BEAR | 2.2% | 46.10 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | FLYING HIGH | 1.3% | 77.23 | 6 |
| 13 | 14 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 0.6% | 166.75 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 110
PLACE
3 35.5
4 14.5
10 33
QUINELLA
3,10 786.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 83
3,10 205.5
4,10 75.5
FORECAST
10,3 2,017
TIERCE
10,3,4 7,106
TRIO
3,4,10 846
FIRST 4
3,4,6,10 4,520
QUARTET
10,3,4,6 120,006
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 26.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,5/3,4,10 9,241
9TH DOUBLE
3/3 204.5
3/10 432.5
SIX UP
1,10/13,14/6,8/1,12/3,5/3,10 53,019
1/14/8/12/3/10 1,938,219
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
12/3/3 2,706
12/3/10 10,249