Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-07-01

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FIRST RESPONDER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with GOOD VIEW CLARICO second and METRO WARRIOR third. The 3.3 favourite JOYFUL FORTUNE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 0.55.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FIRST RESPONDER B 0.55.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 11.0 SH
2 3 GOOD VIEW CLARICO B Shinn · C H Yip 3 12.0 SH
3 4 METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 3.6 SH
4 6 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT H T Mo · D J Hall 7 47.0 SH
5 14 SUPER WIN DRAGON H/TT V Borges · W Y So 6 177.0 3/4
6 12 FLYING HIGH H/TT T Piccone · W Y So 2 50.0 1-1/2
7 7 JOYFUL FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 12 3.3 1-3/4
8 5 IAN C Y Ho · F C Lor 8 42.0 1-3/4
9 13 SPARKLING KNIGHT B1 M L Yeung · C H Yip 11 15.0 3-1/4
10 11 UNITED WE STAND B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 5 7.4 3-1/4
11 9 SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 1 6.7 3-1/4
12 1 SMOKEY BEAR H1 H Bentley · D J Hall 13 31.0 3-1/2
13 8 EMBARKED H1 K Teetan · C Fownes 4 63.0 4-1/4
2 CRUISING K C Leung · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIRST RESPONDER2. GOOD VIEW CLARICO+0.1L3. METRO WARRIOR+0.1L4. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+0.1L5. SUPER WIN DRAGON+0.75L6. FLYING HIGH+1.5L7. JOYFUL FORTUNE+1.75L8. IAN+1.75L9. SPARKLING KNIGHT+3.25L10. UNITED WE STAND+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JOYFUL FORTUNE (20.8%) finished 7th — the winner FIRST RESPONDER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 JOYFUL FORTUNE 20.8% 4.80 7
2 9 SEVEN HEAVENS 18.3% 5.45 11
3 4 METRO WARRIOR 12.7% 7.90 3
4 11 UNITED WE STAND 11.9% 8.43 10
5 5 IAN 10.5% 9.53 8
6 10 FIRST RESPONDER 6.6% 15.13 1
7 8 EMBARKED 4.7% 21.18 13
8 13 SPARKLING KNIGHT 3.6% 28.04 9
9 6 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 3.5% 28.86 4
10 3 GOOD VIEW CLARICO 3.4% 29.51 2
11 1 SMOKEY BEAR 2.2% 46.10 12
12 12 FLYING HIGH 1.3% 77.23 6
13 14 SUPER WIN DRAGON 0.6% 166.75 5
JOYFUL FORTUNESEVEN HEAVENSMETRO WARRIORUNITED WE STANDIANFIRST RESPONDER — wonEMBARKEDSPARKLING KNIGHTQUADRUPLE DOUBLEGOOD VIEW CLARICOSMOKEY BEARFLYING HIGHSUPER WIN DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 110

PLACE

3 35.5

4 14.5

10 33

QUINELLA

3,10 786.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 83

3,10 205.5

4,10 75.5

FORECAST

10,3 2,017

TIERCE

10,3,4 7,106

TRIO

3,4,10 846

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 4,520

QUARTET

10,3,4,6 120,006

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,5/3,4,10 9,241

9TH DOUBLE

3/3 204.5

3/10 432.5

SIX UP

1,10/13,14/6,8/1,12/3,5/3,10 53,019

1/14/8/12/3/10 1,938,219

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

12/3/3 2,706

12/3/10 10,249