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Sha Tin · 2021-07-01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EXCELLENT CHARIOT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with GREAT HARVEST second and AMIGOS GIGGLE third. Victory came as the 4.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT 1.08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P F Yiu 4 4.5 1-1/4
2 10 GREAT HARVEST K Teetan · K L Man 7 6.0 1-1/4
3 2 AMIGOS GIGGLE Z Purton · C W Chang 5 5.5 2-1/2
4 6 TOUCH FAITH B J Moreira · J Size 3 6.8 2-1/2
5 3 INFINITE POWER CP M F Poon · F C Lor 10 4.9 3-1/4
6 11 SPARKLING STAR E1/TT K C Leung · W Y So 6 9.1 4-3/4
7 12 FANTASTIC FABIO C Wong · C H Yip 1 40.0 4-3/4
8 8 XPONENTIAL CP-/SR/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 8.7 6
9 4 THETA HEDGE H1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 54.0 7
10 5 LUCKY TREASURE H1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 126.0 9-3/4
11 7 TELECOM ELITE B-/PC1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 11 112.0 10
12 9 AION CP V Borges · D A Hayes 9 141.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCELLENT CHARIOT2. GREAT HARVEST+1.25L3. AMIGOS GIGGLE+2.5L4. TOUCH FAITH+2.5L5. INFINITE POWER+3.25L6. SPARKLING STAR+4.75L7. FANTASTIC FABIO+4.75L8. XPONENTIAL+6L9. THETA HEDGE+7L10. LUCKY TREASURE+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TOUCH FAITH (30.6%) finished 4th — the winner EXCELLENT CHARIOT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 TOUCH FAITH 30.6% 3.27 4
2 3 INFINITE POWER 14.9% 6.72 5
3 10 GREAT HARVEST 13.3% 7.54 2
4 11 SPARKLING STAR 9.1% 10.96 6
5 1 EXCELLENT CHARIOT 8.7% 11.55 1
6 8 XPONENTIAL 8.5% 11.71 8
7 2 AMIGOS GIGGLE 6.8% 14.79 3
8 4 THETA HEDGE 4.0% 24.83 9
9 12 FANTASTIC FABIO 2.0% 51.25 7
10 7 TELECOM ELITE 1.3% 79.00 11
11 9 AION 0.6% 175.44 12
12 5 LUCKY TREASURE 0.4% 262.48 10
TOUCH FAITHINFINITE POWERGREAT HARVESTSPARKLING STAREXCELLENT CHARIOT — wonXPONENTIALAMIGOS GIGGLETHETA HEDGEFANTASTIC FABIOTELECOM ELITEAIONLUCKY TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 45

PLACE

1 16

2 22.5

10 19

QUINELLA

1,10 147

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 45.5

1,10 48

2,10 76

FORECAST

1,10 239

TIERCE

1,10,2 1,472

TRIO

1,2,10 293

FIRST 4

1,2,6,10 276

QUARTET

1,10,2,6 6,207

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 17.5

4TH DOUBLE

2/1 159

2/10 66