Sha Tin · 2021-07-01
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BIG FORTUNE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with THE GOLDEN SCENERY second and SPEEDY MOUSE third. The 2.3 favourite SPEEDY MOUSE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB 1.08.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 6.2 | N |
| 2 | 5 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 11 | 4.4 | N |
| 3 | 2 | SPEEDY MOUSE Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 2.3 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 2 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | EXCELLENT DADDY K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 6 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | CHICKEN DANCE CP M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | KING'S CAPITAL CP-/XB- M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 4 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | CIRCUIT SIX B- T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 5 | 48.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | LUCKY QUALITY J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 12 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | NOBLE STEED B V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 10 | 79.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | SPECIAL M B/TT H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 7 | 73.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | ROYAL AGILITY TT C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 233.0 | 6 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SPEEDY MOUSE | 31.3% | 3.20 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 21.8% | 4.58 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | LUCKY QUALITY | 12.1% | 8.27 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | BIG FORTUNE | 7.8% | 12.74 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | CHICKEN DANCE | 7.7% | 13.00 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | REGENCY BO BO | 5.8% | 17.23 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 4.9% | 20.59 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | KING'S CAPITAL | 2.7% | 37.56 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | SPECIAL M | 2.3% | 43.10 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | NOBLE STEED | 1.9% | 51.61 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | ROYAL AGILITY | 0.9% | 108.23 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | CIRCUIT SIX | 0.8% | 129.82 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 62
PLACE
2 14
3 16.5
5 17.5
QUINELLA
3,5 143.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 33
2,5 25.5
3,5 54
FORECAST
3,5 400
TIERCE
3,5,2 983
TRIO
2,3,5 86
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 189
QUARTET
3,5,2,1 7,741
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 31.5
A1 —
8TH DOUBLE
12/3 1,306.5
12/5 185.5