Sha Tin · 2021-07-01
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ULTIMATE GLORY, ridden by H W Lai and trained by K L Man, won by HD, with JADE PHOENIX second and SPEED FAY FAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SPEED FAY FAY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly B 1.22.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 20.0 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | JADE PHOENIX Led early B K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 5 | 8.2 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | AWE Closed strongly B B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 4 | 7.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | DURHAM STAR Closed strongly N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 14 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 9 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | DARCI JOY Closed strongly H/B1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | THUNDERSTRIKE H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 1 | 8.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | SWIFT SPIRIT B-/XB-/TT- H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 7 | 57.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SEASONS BLISS Closed strongly C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 12 | 4.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | MELBOURNE HALL Closed strongly H/XB H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 14 | 71.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | ARMOR STAR V-/CP1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 6 | 24.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | ENJOY MY LIFE B-/XB/TT- M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 8 | 247.0 | 15 |
| 14 | 11 | GALLANT CAVALIER B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 11 | 203.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SEASONS BLISS | 21.4% | 4.67 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | THUNDERSTRIKE | 19.3% | 5.19 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | SPEED FAY FAY | 15.3% | 6.54 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | JADE PHOENIX | 11.2% | 8.94 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | AWE | 10.2% | 9.80 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | MELBOURNE HALL | 4.1% | 24.26 | 11 |
| 7 | 12 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 3.9% | 25.62 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | DARCI JOY | 3.7% | 26.70 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | ARMOR STAR | 3.2% | 31.63 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | DURHAM STAR | 2.3% | 43.15 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | GALLANT CAVALIER | 1.8% | 55.79 | 14 |
| 12 | 14 | VIVA POPCORN | 1.6% | 61.06 | 6 |
| 13 | 5 | SWIFT SPIRIT | 1.5% | 67.86 | 9 |
| 14 | 13 | ENJOY MY LIFE | 0.5% | 215.46 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 201
PLACE
1 26
3 15.5
12 45
QUINELLA
1,12 710
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 55
1,12 191
3,12 94.5
FORECAST
12,1 1,593
TIERCE
12,1,3 6,593
TRIO
1,3,12 642
FIRST 4
1,3,4,12 820
QUARTET
12,1,3,4 31,166
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 26
A1 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
8/1 138
8/12 1,004