沙田 · 2022-10-16 · 16:39
第 8場
2022-10-16沙田第8場，Group 2，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIA SPANGLE勝出，贏出1-1/2。TOURBILLON DIAMOND獲得亞軍；SAVVY NINE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以1.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 一路領先 TT 1.33.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 1.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 9 | 40.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | SAVVY NINE 後段發力 B/XB R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 4 | 63.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | KA YING STAR V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 1 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 後段發力 B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 24.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SENOR TOBA 後段發力 V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | BUTTERFIELD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 3 | 59.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 14 | TURIN REDSUN B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 7 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | PANFIELD 後段發力 TT S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 10 | 38.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | BEAUTY JOY H/TT L Currie · A S Cruz | L Currie | A S Cruz | 14 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | WAIKUKU 後段發力 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 13 | 71.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 8 | 32.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 13 | 8 | MORE THAN THIS K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 2 | 27.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | CHEERFUL DAYS B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 11 | 87.0 | 4-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 33.4% | 3.00 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | SENOR TOBA | 12.7% | 7.86 | 6 |
| 3 | 5 | BEAUTY JOY | 10.5% | 9.50 | 10 |
| 4 | 14 | TURIN REDSUN | 10.4% | 9.66 | 8 |
| 5 | 4 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 5.4% | 18.48 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 4.7% | 21.10 | 12 |
| 7 | 7 | PANFIELD | 4.6% | 21.79 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | KA YING STAR | 3.8% | 26.45 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | BUTTERFIELD | 3.0% | 33.71 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | MORE THAN THIS | 2.8% | 35.26 | 13 |
| 11 | 13 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 2.5% | 39.75 | 14 |
| 12 | 10 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 2.2% | 44.62 | 5 |
| 13 | 11 | SAVVY NINE | 2.0% | 49.45 | 3 |
| 14 | 1 | WAIKUKU | 1.9% | 51.56 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 13.5
PLACE
3 10.1
4 59
11 103
QUINELLA
3,4 195
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 82.5
3,11 125
4,11 1,407.5
FORECAST
3,4 199
TIERCE
3,4,11 5,758
TRIO
3,4,11 1,699
FIRST 4
3,4,6,11 4,633
QUARTET
3,4,11,6 44,122
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
1/3 49.5
1/4 249.5