Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 16:39
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Wire to wire TT 1.33.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 1.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 9 | 40.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 4 | 63.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | KA YING STAR V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 1 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 24.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | SENOR TOBA Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | BUTTERFIELD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 3 | 59.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | TURIN REDSUN B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 7 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | PANFIELD Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 10 | 38.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | WAIKUKU Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 13 | 71.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 8 | 32.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 13 | 0 | MORE THAN THIS K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 2 | 27.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 14 | 0 | CHEERFUL DAYS B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 11 | 87.0 | 4-3/4 |
| — | 0 | BEAUTY JOY H/TT L Currie · A S Cruz | L Currie | A S Cruz | — | 10.0 | 4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with TOURBILLON DIAMOND second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 33.4% | 3.00 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | SENOR TOBA | 12.7% | 7.86 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | BEAUTY JOY | 10.5% | 9.50 | — |
| 4 | 0 | TURIN REDSUN | 10.4% | 9.66 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 5.4% | 18.48 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 4.7% | 21.10 | 12 |
| 7 | 0 | PANFIELD | 4.6% | 21.79 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | KA YING STAR | 3.8% | 26.45 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | BUTTERFIELD | 3.0% | 33.71 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | MORE THAN THIS | 2.8% | 35.26 | 13 |
| 11 | 0 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 2.5% | 39.75 | 14 |
| 12 | 0 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 2.2% | 44.62 | 5 |
| 13 | 0 | SAVVY NINE | 2.0% | 49.45 | 3 |
| 14 | 0 | WAIKUKU | 1.9% | 51.56 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 13.5
PLACE
3 10.1
4 59
11 103
QUINELLA
3,4 195
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 82.5
3,11 125
4,11 1,407.5
FORECAST
3,4 199
TIERCE
3,4,11 5,758
TRIO
3,4,11 1,699
FIRST 4
3,4,6,11 4,633
QUARTET
3,4,11,6 44,122
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13.5
7TH DOUBLE
1/3 49.5
1/4 249.5