Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 13:01
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ISLAND GOLDEN, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by 3-1/4, with YOUNG SPARKLE second and SUPERB MOVE third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ISLAND GOLDEN 1.09.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 1 | 1.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | YOUNG SPARKLE A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 3 | 8.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | SUPERB MOVE B1 R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 4 | 23.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | JOYFUL CHAMPION TT Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 6 | 7.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | LEAN HERO A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 5 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | INSPIRING CITY H C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 2 | 9.3 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | NOBLE ACE H/P Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 8.4 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INSPIRING CITY | 37.4% | 2.67 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 14.4% | 6.95 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | LEAN HERO | 12.7% | 7.90 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | YOUNG SPARKLE | 12.6% | 7.95 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 10.2% | 9.84 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | NOBLE ACE | 8.6% | 11.57 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | SUPERB MOVE | 4.2% | 24.02 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 16
PLACE
2 10.1
6 18.5
7 46.5
QUINELLA
2,6 64.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 28
2,7 68.5
6,7 132.5
FORECAST
2,6 80
TIERCE
2,6,7 887
TRIO
2,6,7 282
FIRST 4
2,4,6,7 266
QUARTET
2,6,7,4 3,881
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —