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Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. S J TOURBILLON, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with WOODFIRE BRO second and PRECISE EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite LOOKING COOL finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.46.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR/XB/CP1/TT 1.46.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 44.0 NOSE
2 14 WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · L Ho 10 7.0 NOSE
3 4 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly P-/H S De Sousa · P F Yiu 5 22.0 SH
4 2 CHAMPION DRAGON Led early H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 14 21.0 SH
5 7 INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B R Maia · A T Millard 4 7.1 1-1/4
5 10 LOOKING COOL Closed strongly PC Z Purton · F C Lor 1 3.0 1-1/4
7 11 HIT THE SHOT TT A Badel · J Size 9 5.7 1-1/4
8 3 ROMANTIC COMBO B/TT V Borges · C S Shum 7 24.0 1-1/4
9 1 COPARTNER ELITES CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 12 9.0 2-1/4
10 6 ENTRUSTED CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 13.0 4
11 8 NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB C L Chau · A T Millard 13 61.0 5-3/4
12 9 TOTAL POWER B K H Chan · D J Hall 8 47.0 6
13 12 MOONLIGHT VISTA TT H N Wong · P C Ng 6 136.0 8-1/4
14 13 BOOM ALLIANCE SR/XB1/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 2 29.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. S J TOURBILLON2. WOODFIRE BRO+0.05L3. PRECISE EXPRESS+0.1L4. CHAMPION DRAGON+0.1L5. INTREPID WINNER+1.25L5. LOOKING COOL+1.25L7. HIT THE SHOT+1.25L8. ROMANTIC COMBO+1.25L9. COPARTNER ELITES+2.25L10. ENTRUSTED+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LOOKING COOL (29.8%) finished 5th — the winner S J TOURBILLON was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LOOKING COOL 29.8% 3.36 5
2 14 WOODFIRE BRO 16.5% 6.05 2
3 7 INTREPID WINNER 12.6% 7.95 5
4 1 COPARTNER ELITES 6.1% 16.41 9
5 11 HIT THE SHOT 5.2% 19.12 7
6 9 TOTAL POWER 5.0% 19.94 12
7 6 ENTRUSTED 4.7% 21.47 10
8 2 CHAMPION DRAGON 4.3% 23.21 4
9 4 PRECISE EXPRESS 3.8% 25.99 3
10 3 ROMANTIC COMBO 3.6% 27.43 8
11 5 S J TOURBILLON 3.5% 28.28 1
12 13 BOOM ALLIANCE 2.5% 40.69 14
13 8 NORDIC SKY 1.7% 57.65 11
14 12 MOONLIGHT VISTA 0.6% 176.03 13
LOOKING COOLWOODFIRE BROINTREPID WINNERCOPARTNER ELITESHIT THE SHOTTOTAL POWERENTRUSTEDCHAMPION DRAGONPRECISE EXPRESSROMANTIC COMBOS J TOURBILLON — wonBOOM ALLIANCENORDIC SKYMOONLIGHT VISTA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 446.5

PLACE

4 62

5 104

14 25

QUINELLA

5,14 1,557.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 749.5

4,14 201

5,14 408

FORECAST

5,14 3,768

TIERCE

5,14,4 81,198

TRIO

4,5,14 10,155

FIRST 4

2,4,5,14 29,370

QUARTET

5,14,4,2 876,328

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 29

A2

5TH DOUBLE

7/5 1,991

7/14 88

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,6/7,9,11/Any Combination 57,658