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Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 16:07

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SWEET ENCOUNTER, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by SH, with BLISSFUL STAR second and SPEED FAY FAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BLISSFUL STAR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly 1.21.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 14 3.7 SH
2 7 BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V/TT Z Purton · K H Ting 3 3.6 SH
3 12 SPEED FAY FAY B S De Sousa · A T Millard 6 10.0 N
4 6 CIRCUIT MIGHTY Led early TT M F Poon · K L Man 1 8.4 1-1/2
5 10 ADEFILL Closed strongly CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 13.0 3
6 11 PEAK TO PEAK PC/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 23.0 3-1/2
7 14 LUCK STAR Closed strongly A Hamelin · T P Yung 12 35.0 3-1/2
8 9 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 22.0 3-3/4
9 2 UNIVERSAL HORIZON C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 6.4 4-3/4
10 13 MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 79.0 5
11 3 COPARTNER ERA B V Borges · W Y So 7 29.0 5-1/4
12 8 IRON WILL B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 84.0 5-1/4
13 5 BORN THE SAME DAY H/P/TT2 L Hewitson · P C Ng 2 32.0 5-1/2
14 4 SMILING CITY V-/B1 R Maia · D J Whyte 9 49.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET ENCOUNTER2. BLISSFUL STAR+0.1L3. SPEED FAY FAY+0.05L4. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+1.5L5. ADEFILL+3L6. PEAK TO PEAK+3.5L7. LUCK STAR+3.5L8. KUNG FU TEA+3.75L9. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+4.75L10. MIGHTY STAR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BLISSFUL STAR (23.5%) finished 2nd — the winner SWEET ENCOUNTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BLISSFUL STAR 23.5% 4.26 2
2 1 SWEET ENCOUNTER 21.6% 4.63 1
3 2 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 9.4% 10.67 9
4 12 SPEED FAY FAY 6.6% 15.10 3
5 6 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 6.0% 16.59 4
6 11 PEAK TO PEAK 5.4% 18.49 6
7 14 LUCK STAR 5.0% 20.08 7
8 3 COPARTNER ERA 4.8% 20.67 11
9 9 KUNG FU TEA 4.1% 24.28 8
10 10 ADEFILL 4.0% 24.81 5
11 5 BORN THE SAME DAY 3.4% 29.80 13
12 4 SMILING CITY 3.3% 30.26 14
13 8 IRON WILL 1.6% 63.77 12
14 13 MIGHTY STAR 1.3% 77.60 10
BLISSFUL STARSWEET ENCOUNTER — wonUNIVERSAL HORIZONSPEED FAY FAYCIRCUIT MIGHTYPEAK TO PEAKLUCK STARCOPARTNER ERAKUNG FU TEAADEFILLBORN THE SAME DAYSMILING CITYIRON WILLMIGHTY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 37.5

PLACE

1 19.5

7 15.5

12 29

QUINELLA

1,7 89

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 39.5

1,12 87

7,12 84

FORECAST

1,7 166

TIERCE

1,7,12 1,264

TRIO

1,7,12 319

FIRST 4

1,6,7,12 495

QUARTET

1,7,12,6 6,817

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,14/1,7,12 317,053

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2

A3

6TH DOUBLE

5/1 1,662

5/7 278