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Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B 1.21.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P C Ng 7 5.8 3
2 0 VOYAGE STAR Closed strongly V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 13 17.0 3
3 0 BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 8.0 3-1/4
4 0 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 6 5.9 3-1/2
5 0 FUNCTION PATCH Closed strongly P-/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 41.0 3-3/4
6 0 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 11 19.0 5-1/4
7 0 CHARMING STEED TT K H Chan · C Fownes 1 62.0 5-1/4
8 0 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 14 56.0 5-1/2
9 0 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 10 5.2 6-1/2
10 0 HO HO JUNIOR L Hewitson · D J Hall 5 103.0 7
11 0 DOUBLE SHOW SR-/CP1/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 2 13.0 7
12 0 BULB PALS TT Z Purton · C H Yip 3 4.3 8-3/4
13 0 GENERAL WINNER CP L Currie · K H Ting 12 31.0 9-1/4
14 0 SWEET DIAMOND TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 22.0 16-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STUNNING IMPACT, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P C Ng, won by 3, with VOYAGE STAR second and BAEBAE TSOI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite BULB PALS finished 12th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STUNNING IMPACT—2. VOYAGE STAR+3L3. BAEBAE TSOI+3.25L4. SUNNY DELIGHT+3.5L5. FUNCTION PATCH+3.75L6. JIANGXI STAMINA+5.25L7. CHARMING STEED+5.25L8. FLYING MOJITO+5.5L9. STAR CONTACT+6.5L10. HO HO JUNIOR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BULB PALS (22.1%) finished 12th — the winner STUNNING IMPACT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BULB PALS 22.1% 4.52 12
2 0 SUNNY DELIGHT 10.8% 9.29 4
3 0 STUNNING IMPACT 10.7% 9.33 1
4 0 STAR CONTACT 10.7% 9.35 9
5 0 DOUBLE SHOW 9.3% 10.70 11
6 0 FLYING MOJITO 5.5% 18.04 8
7 0 VOYAGE STAR 4.8% 20.86 2
8 0 BAEBAE TSOI 4.7% 21.32 3
9 0 FUNCTION PATCH 4.5% 22.16 5
10 0 GENERAL WINNER 4.4% 22.78 13
11 0 CHARMING STEED 4.2% 24.08 7
12 0 SWEET DIAMOND 4.0% 24.96 14
13 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 2.8% 35.42 6
14 0 HO HO JUNIOR 1.4% 69.21 10
BULB PALSSUNNY DELIGHTSTUNNING IMPACT — wonSTAR CONTACTDOUBLE SHOWFLYING MOJITOVOYAGE STARBAEBAE TSOIFUNCTION PATCHGENERAL WINNERCHARMING STEEDSWEET DIAMONDJIANGXI STAMINAHO HO JUNIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 58

PLACE

7 18.5

9 29

11 48

QUINELLA

7,11 472

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 73.5

7,11 152

9,11 211.5

FORECAST

7,11 1,048

TIERCE

7,11,9 7,523

TRIO

7,9,11 989

FIRST 4

7,9,11,14 1,629

QUARTET

7,11,9,14 45,006

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 29.5

A3 —

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

2/7 1,985.5

2/11 729