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Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STUNNING IMPACT, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P C Ng, won by 3, with VOYAGE STAR second and BAEBAE TSOI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite BULB PALS finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.21.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B 1.21.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P C Ng 7 5.8 3
2 11 VOYAGE STAR Closed strongly V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 13 17.0 3
3 9 BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 8.0 3-1/4
4 14 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 6 5.9 3-1/2
5 1 FUNCTION PATCH Closed strongly P-/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 41.0 3-3/4
6 12 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 11 19.0 5-1/4
7 3 CHARMING STEED TT K H Chan · C Fownes 1 62.0 5-1/4
8 6 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 14 56.0 5-1/2
9 5 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 10 5.2 6-1/2
10 13 HO HO JUNIOR L Hewitson · D J Hall 5 103.0 7
11 10 DOUBLE SHOW SR-/CP1/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 2 13.0 7
12 2 BULB PALS TT Z Purton · C H Yip 3 4.3 8-3/4
13 8 GENERAL WINNER CP L Currie · K H Ting 12 31.0 9-1/4
14 4 SWEET DIAMOND TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 22.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STUNNING IMPACT2. VOYAGE STAR+3L3. BAEBAE TSOI+3.25L4. SUNNY DELIGHT+3.5L5. FUNCTION PATCH+3.75L6. JIANGXI STAMINA+5.25L7. CHARMING STEED+5.25L8. FLYING MOJITO+5.5L9. STAR CONTACT+6.5L10. HO HO JUNIOR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BULB PALS (22.1%) finished 12th — the winner STUNNING IMPACT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BULB PALS 22.1% 4.52 12
2 14 SUNNY DELIGHT 10.8% 9.29 4
3 7 STUNNING IMPACT 10.7% 9.33 1
4 5 STAR CONTACT 10.7% 9.35 9
5 10 DOUBLE SHOW 9.3% 10.70 11
6 6 FLYING MOJITO 5.5% 18.04 8
7 11 VOYAGE STAR 4.8% 20.86 2
8 9 BAEBAE TSOI 4.7% 21.32 3
9 1 FUNCTION PATCH 4.5% 22.16 5
10 8 GENERAL WINNER 4.4% 22.78 13
11 3 CHARMING STEED 4.2% 24.08 7
12 4 SWEET DIAMOND 4.0% 24.96 14
13 12 JIANGXI STAMINA 2.8% 35.42 6
14 13 HO HO JUNIOR 1.4% 69.21 10
BULB PALSSUNNY DELIGHTSTUNNING IMPACT — wonSTAR CONTACTDOUBLE SHOWFLYING MOJITOVOYAGE STARBAEBAE TSOIFUNCTION PATCHGENERAL WINNERCHARMING STEEDSWEET DIAMONDJIANGXI STAMINAHO HO JUNIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 58

PLACE

7 18.5

9 29

11 48

QUINELLA

7,11 472

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 73.5

7,11 152

9,11 211.5

FORECAST

7,11 1,048

TIERCE

7,11,9 7,523

TRIO

7,9,11 989

FIRST 4

7,9,11,14 1,629

QUARTET

7,11,9,14 45,006

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 29.5

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

2/7 1,985.5

2/11 729