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Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course A+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 2.02.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT 2.02.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 3 7.2 NOSE
2 0 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly B/H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 8.4 NOSE
3 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V2 Z Purton · C H Yip 8 5.6 3/4
4 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly A Hamelin · C Fownes 12 30.0 3/4
5 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui 7 8.4 2
6 0 STAR OF GLORY Led early B Y L Chung · C W Chang 10 7.5 2-1/4
7 0 BARON ZEE PC-/TT A Badel · R Gibson 1 24.0 2-1/4
8 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 11 10.0 2-1/2
9 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 13 20.0 3-1/4
10 0 FORTUNE PATROL B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 4 18.0 4-1/4
11 0 TURF BRILLIANT B M Chadwick · W Y So 6 7.1 6
12 0 MISTER MONTE B-/CP2 H T Mo · C W Chang 2 22.0 8-3/4
13 0 YEE CHEONG BRAVE TT K C Leung · A T Millard 5 14.0 11-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. REGENCY MASTER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by NOSE, with LOYAL AMBITION second and MURRAY'S PARTNERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.6 favourite MURRAY'S PARTNERS finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY MASTER—2. LOYAL AMBITION+0.05L3. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+0.75L4. SKY GEM+0.75L5. SUPERB DADDY+2L6. STAR OF GLORY+2.25L7. BARON ZEE+2.25L8. FLASH FAMOUS+2.5L9. FORTUNE TRIPLE+3.25L10. FORTUNE PATROL+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MURRAY'S PARTNERS (16.6%) finished 3rd — the winner REGENCY MASTER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 16.6% 6.04 3
2 0 STAR OF GLORY 16.5% 6.06 6
3 0 LOYAL AMBITION 14.8% 6.75 2
4 0 FLASH FAMOUS 7.8% 12.74 8
5 0 TURF BRILLIANT 7.2% 13.89 11
6 0 REGENCY MASTER 6.9% 14.44 1
7 0 SUPERB DADDY 6.4% 15.53 5
8 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE 5.7% 17.47 9
9 0 YEE CHEONG BRAVE 5.1% 19.62 13
10 0 MISTER MONTE 3.8% 26.39 12
11 0 FORTUNE PATROL 3.5% 28.39 10
12 0 SKY GEM 3.2% 31.65 4
13 0 BARON ZEE 2.4% 41.17 7
MURRAY'S PARTNERSSTAR OF GLORYLOYAL AMBITIONFLASH FAMOUSTURF BRILLIANTREGENCY MASTER — wonSUPERB DADDYFORTUNE TRIPLEYEE CHEONG BRAVEMISTER MONTEFORTUNE PATROLSKY GEMBARON ZEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 72

PLACE

1 21.5

4 28

8 33.5

QUINELLA

4,8 415

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 109

1,8 112

4,8 145

FORECAST

4,8 1,118

TIERCE

4,8,1 6,119

TRIO

1,4,8 795

FIRST 4

1,4,8,10 5,795

QUARTET

4,8,1,10 133,609

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 285.5

2/8 30.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 18

A2 —