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Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. REGENCY MASTER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by NOSE, with LOYAL AMBITION second and MURRAY'S PARTNERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.6 favourite MURRAY'S PARTNERS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.02.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT 2.02.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 3 7.2 NOSE
2 8 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly B/H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 8.4 NOSE
3 1 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V2 Z Purton · C H Yip 8 5.6 3/4
4 10 SKY GEM Closed strongly A Hamelin · C Fownes 12 30.0 3/4
5 11 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui 7 8.4 2
6 2 STAR OF GLORY Led early B Y L Chung · C W Chang 10 7.5 2-1/4
7 3 BARON ZEE PC-/TT A Badel · R Gibson 1 24.0 2-1/4
8 6 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 11 10.0 2-1/2
9 13 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 13 20.0 3-1/4
10 12 FORTUNE PATROL B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 4 18.0 4-1/4
11 7 TURF BRILLIANT B M Chadwick · W Y So 6 7.1 6
12 9 MISTER MONTE B-/CP2 H T Mo · C W Chang 2 22.0 8-3/4
13 5 YEE CHEONG BRAVE TT K C Leung · A T Millard 5 14.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY MASTER2. LOYAL AMBITION+0.05L3. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+0.75L4. SKY GEM+0.75L5. SUPERB DADDY+2L6. STAR OF GLORY+2.25L7. BARON ZEE+2.25L8. FLASH FAMOUS+2.5L9. FORTUNE TRIPLE+3.25L10. FORTUNE PATROL+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MURRAY'S PARTNERS (16.6%) finished 3rd — the winner REGENCY MASTER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 16.6% 6.04 3
2 2 STAR OF GLORY 16.5% 6.06 6
3 8 LOYAL AMBITION 14.8% 6.75 2
4 6 FLASH FAMOUS 7.8% 12.74 8
5 7 TURF BRILLIANT 7.2% 13.89 11
6 4 REGENCY MASTER 6.9% 14.44 1
7 11 SUPERB DADDY 6.4% 15.53 5
8 13 FORTUNE TRIPLE 5.7% 17.47 9
9 5 YEE CHEONG BRAVE 5.1% 19.62 13
10 9 MISTER MONTE 3.8% 26.39 12
11 12 FORTUNE PATROL 3.5% 28.39 10
12 10 SKY GEM 3.2% 31.65 4
13 3 BARON ZEE 2.4% 41.17 7
MURRAY'S PARTNERSSTAR OF GLORYLOYAL AMBITIONFLASH FAMOUSTURF BRILLIANTREGENCY MASTER — wonSUPERB DADDYFORTUNE TRIPLEYEE CHEONG BRAVEMISTER MONTEFORTUNE PATROLSKY GEMBARON ZEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 72

PLACE

1 21.5

4 28

8 33.5

QUINELLA

4,8 415

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 109

1,8 112

4,8 145

FORECAST

4,8 1,118

TIERCE

4,8,1 6,119

TRIO

1,4,8 795

FIRST 4

1,4,8,10 5,795

QUARTET

4,8,1,10 133,609

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 285.5

2/8 30.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 18

A2