Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A+3 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FANTASTIC WAY, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by SH, with IMA SINGLE MAN second and LUCKY WITH YOU third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.52

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	FANTASTIC WAY 1.08.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	1	129 lb	2.8	SH
2	2	IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	6	120 lb	3.5	SH
3	1	LUCKY WITH YOU Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	7	135 lb	3.4	1-1/2
4	5	FAMILY FOLKS B A Hamelin · C W Chang	A Hamelin	C W Chang	2	124 lb	21.0	2
5	6	ROCK YA HEART TT R Maia · K W Lui	R Maia	K W Lui	3	122 lb	9.3	2-3/4
6	7	TORONADO PHANTOM TT V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	4	121 lb	24.0	4
7	4	CLASSIC UNICORN P/TT C L Chau · W Y So	C L Chau	W Y So	5	123 lb	51.0	4-1/2
8	8	RUN RUN COOL PC M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	8	120 lb	13.0	4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick LUCKY WITH YOU (39.3%) finished 3rd — the winner FANTASTIC WAY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	LUCKY WITH YOU	39.3%	2.55	3	3.4
2	3	FANTASTIC WAY	18.1%	5.52	1	2.8
3	2	IMA SINGLE MAN	11.1%	9.04	2	3.5
4	8	RUN RUN COOL	9.2%	10.92	8	13.0
5	6	ROCK YA HEART	6.3%	15.86	5	9.3
6	4	CLASSIC UNICORN	6.2%	16.23	7	51.0
7	5	FAMILY FOLKS	6.0%	16.66	4	21.0
8	7	TORONADO PHANTOM	3.9%	25.44	6	24.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 28

PLACE

1 16.5

2 12.5

3 11

QUINELLA

2,3 48.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 28

1,3 22.5

2,3 19.5

FORECAST

3,2 104

TIERCE

3,2,1 188

TRIO

1,2,3 46

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 111

QUARTET

3,2,1,5 1,201

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 63.5

4/3 309.5

3 PICK 1

A1 15.5

A2 —

A3 —

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