Sha Tin · 2022-10-16 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-16 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with NOBLE ONE second and BIG ME third. The 2.3 favourite BIG ME finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.56.83

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B 0.56.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	9	135 lb	30.0	1/2
2	6	NOBLE ONE H C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	8	130 lb	21.0	1/2
3	1	BIG ME TT K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	5	130 lb	2.3	1-1/4
4	5	AMAZING ROCKY Z Purton · T P Yung	Z Purton	T P Yung	2	131 lb	6.2	1-1/2
5	12	UNITED WE STAND B/TT L Hewitson · P C Ng	L Hewitson	P C Ng	1	124 lb	19.0	1-3/4
6	10	GLORY BO BO B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum	C L Chau	C S Shum	10	122 lb	24.0	2-1/2
7	14	DIVINE ERA TT M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	7	117 lb	96.0	3-1/4
8	9	FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	4	126 lb	11.0	3-1/2
9	4	CHEVAL VALIANT B/H/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte	Y L Chung	D J Whyte	6	122 lb	5.7	3-3/4
10	13	YOUNG HORIZON SB- L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	11	124 lb	26.0	4-3/4
11	7	SAVVY CHIC TT1 S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	12	128 lb	15.0	5-1/4
12	8	GENEROUS FRIEND R Maia · C H Yip	R Maia	C H Yip	3	128 lb	84.0	6-1/2
13	3	DASHING TRIUMPH TT H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	14	131 lb	15.0	7-1/2
14	11	HEI WONGCHOY TT V Borges · Y S Tsui	V Borges	Y S Tsui	13	124 lb	151.0	26-1/4
—	0	WE ARE HERO S De Sousa · K L Man	S De Sousa	K L Man	—	130 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick BIG ME (21.4%) finished 3rd — the winner PLEASANT ENDEAVOR was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BIG ME	21.4%	4.67	3	2.3
2	5	AMAZING ROCKY	17.4%	5.74	4	6.2
3	7	SAVVY CHIC	13.2%	7.58	11	15.0
4	3	DASHING TRIUMPH	10.8%	9.27	13	15.0
5	4	CHEVAL VALIANT	8.9%	11.22	9	5.7
6	9	FLYING HIGH	7.8%	12.81	8	11.0
7	6	NOBLE ONE	3.8%	26.04	2	21.0
8	2	PLEASANT ENDEAVOR	3.5%	28.24	1	30.0
9	13	YOUNG HORIZON	3.0%	33.34	10	26.0
10	12	UNITED WE STAND	2.9%	34.39	5	19.0
11	10	GLORY BO BO	2.9%	34.57	6	24.0
12	8	GENEROUS FRIEND	2.6%	38.66	12	84.0
13	14	DIVINE ERA	1.0%	95.40	7	96.0
14	11	HEI WONGCHOY	0.6%	156.97	14	151.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 300.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 69

6 45.5

QUINELLA

2,6 2,211

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 144

1,6 124

2,6 593.5

FORECAST

2,6 5,993

TIERCE

2,6,1 26,672

TRIO

1,2,6 2,320

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 2,785

QUARTET

2,6,1,5 120,483

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,3/1,2,6 10,178

3 PICK 1

A3 24.5

A2 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

3/2 867

3/6 71.5

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