沙田 · 2023-01-15 · 17:48
第 10場
2023-01-15沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、J Size訓練的TUCHEL勝出，贏出1/2。GALAXY WITNESS獲得亞軍；MR ASCENDENCY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.7倍大熱門GALAXY WITNESS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | TUCHEL 後段發力 1.21.49 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 14 | 4.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | GALAXY WITNESS 後段發力 B H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 13 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | MR ASCENDENCY 後段發力 CP S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 7 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAUTY LIVE 後段發力 TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 10 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 12 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | WINNING METHOD 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 9 | 28.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | A PAL CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 11 | 5.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | KING LAND C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 35.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | WINNER METHOD TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 2 | 16.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | CAPTAIN WIN 後段發力 B/XB/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 1 | 9.6 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | TIANCHI MONSTER H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 8 | 73.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 14 | BEAUTY GLORY 早段領放 H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 13 | CAN'T GO WONG V-/CP1 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 3 | 55.0 | 10 |
| 14 | 7 | NAVAS TWO CP R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 5 | 31.0 | 22-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | TUCHEL | 26.0% | 3.85 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | A PAL | 13.2% | 7.60 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | GALAXY WITNESS | 10.5% | 9.51 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAUTY LIVE | 9.1% | 11.02 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | WINNER METHOD | 8.0% | 12.43 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | MR ASCENDENCY | 6.6% | 15.06 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 5.8% | 17.15 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | CAPTAIN WIN | 5.7% | 17.41 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | KING LAND | 3.4% | 29.14 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | WINNING METHOD | 3.3% | 30.54 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | NAVAS TWO | 3.0% | 33.75 | 14 |
| 12 | 14 | BEAUTY GLORY | 2.2% | 45.17 | 12 |
| 13 | 8 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 2.2% | 45.75 | 11 |
| 14 | 13 | CAN'T GO WONG | 0.9% | 105.58 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 47.5
PLACE
4 33.5
5 17.5
12 20
QUINELLA
5,12 92.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 100.5
4,12 118.5
5,12 42
FORECAST
12,5 264
TIERCE
12,5,4 1,616
TRIO
4,5,12 403
FIRST 4
3,4,5,12 545
QUARTET
12,5,4,3 7,873
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 21
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,4/4,5,12 3,741,816
9TH DOUBLE
4/5 547.5
4/12 4,104
SIX UP
9/6/7,14/4/4/12 6,529,068
9,12/6,8/7,10,14/4,12/2,4/5,12 45,554
1 [J Size] —
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
4/4/5 2,363
4/4/12 21,192