沙田 · 2024-11-24 · 07:15
第 5場
2024-11-24沙田第5場，Class 3，途程1200米。由J McDonald策騎、K L Man訓練的SELF IMPROVEMENT勝出，贏出1-3/4。MUST GO獲得亞軍；SUPER WIN DRAGON獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門PACKING BOLE跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT 1.08.12 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J McDonald · K L Man | J McDonald | K L Man | 4 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | MUST GO E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | PACKING BOLE TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 3.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | LUCK IS BACK L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 8 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | TALE OF PERTH B B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 10 | 129.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SOLID IMPACT CP K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 12 | 32.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | VICTORY MOMENTS B/SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 27.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | AURIO TT1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 9 | 43.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | HARMONY FIRE CP/TT P N Wong · D J Whyte | P N Wong | D J Whyte | 3 | 42.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | WONDERSTAR B L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 2 | 13.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | MAGNIAC CP/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 1 | 39.0 | 17-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PACKING BOLE | 21.8% | 4.60 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | MUST GO | 18.0% | 5.57 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | SELF IMPROVEMENT | 16.0% | 6.27 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | WONDERSTAR | 11.3% | 8.85 | 11 |
| 5 | 5 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 8.7% | 11.48 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | SOLID IMPACT | 6.2% | 16.12 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | LUCK IS BACK | 4.6% | 21.74 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | VICTORY MOMENTS | 3.9% | 25.58 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | HARMONY FIRE | 3.3% | 30.46 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | MAGNIAC | 2.7% | 37.06 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | AURIO | 2.5% | 39.62 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | TALE OF PERTH | 1.1% | 92.15 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 42.5
PLACE
5 26.5
7 16.5
11 13.5
QUINELLA
7,11 71
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 67
5,11 52
7,11 28
FORECAST
7,11 158
TIERCE
7,11,5 801
TRIO
5,7,11 129
FIRST 4
5,6,7,11 107
QUARTET
7,11,5,6 2,524
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST TREBLE
7/5/7 23,019
7/5/11 3,898
4TH DOUBLE
5/7 489.5
5/11 63.5