沙田 · 2026-01-04 · 07:05
THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP (HANDICAP)
第 6場
2026-01-04沙田第6場「THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP (HANDICAP)」，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由M L Yeung策騎、D A Hayes訓練的POSITIVE SMILE勝出。FLOW WATER FLOW獲得亞軍；MR COOL獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.2倍大熱門MR COOL跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | POSITIVE SMILE 後段發力 B/TT 1:21.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 5.6 | — |
| 2 | 4 | FLOW WATER FLOW 後段發力 B H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 4.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | MR COOL 後段發力 CP-/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 7 | 2.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 14 | FIGHT TIME 後段發力 B-/V2 K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 9 | 16.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | DIRIYA M Guyon · C H Yip | M Guyon | C H Yip | 12 | 48.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL 早段領放 H/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 5 | 45.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | VIVA FIRECRACKER TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 14 | 45.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | DASHING MAURISON 後段發力 CP R Kingscote · D A Hayes | R Kingscote | D A Hayes | 6 | 110.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | INVICTUS DRAGON 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | MADE FOR LIFE B1/TT1 B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 13 | 11.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | EXCELLENT BOY H-/CP1 E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 1 | 61.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | LUCK SMILES 後段發力 TT J Orman · W Y So | J Orman | W Y So | 2 | 139.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | DERRYNBLUE H/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 8 | 143.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 1 | LUCKY XANDER V-/B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 10 | 60.0 | 16-1/4 |
| — | 0 | FORTUNE WARRIOR TT · C H Yip | — | C H Yip | — | — | — |
| — | 4 | WORLD HERO CP-/B2 · D A Hayes | — | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MR COOL | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | FLOW WATER FLOW | 17.4% | 5.74 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | POSITIVE SMILE | 9.2% | 10.84 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | INVICTUS DRAGON | 9.0% | 11.06 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | MADE FOR LIFE | 8.4% | 11.84 | 10 |
| 6 | 13 | DIRIYA | 7.3% | 13.65 | 5 |
| 7 | 14 | FIGHT TIME | 6.7% | 14.91 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL | 5.6% | 18.00 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | LUCKY XANDER | 4.9% | 20.22 | 14 |
| 10 | 9 | VIVA FIRECRACKER | 4.0% | 25.07 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | DASHING MAURISON | 2.5% | 40.68 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | DERRYNBLUE | 1.5% | 67.40 | 13 |
| 13 | 7 | LUCK SMILES | 1.4% | 72.99 | 12 |
| 14 | 6 | EXCELLENT BOY | 1.3% | 77.64 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 56.5
PLACE
2 12.5
4 17.5
11 14
QUINELLA
4,11 122
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 26.5
2,11 26.5
4,11 40
FORECAST
11,4 266
TIERCE
11,4,2 730
TRIO
2,4,11 83
FIRST 4
2,4,11,14 176
QUARTET
11,4,2,14 4,153
全部彩池（另 1 項）
5TH DOUBLE
3/4 22
3/11 195