沙田 · 2026-01-04 · 09:50
TAI TONG HANDICAP
第 11場
2026-01-04沙田第11場「TAI TONG HANDICAP」，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由H Bentley策騎、B Crawford訓練的LOVERO勝出。SMART AVENUE獲得亞軍；LEGEND WINNER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.3倍大熱門EVERYONE'S STAR跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LOVERO 後段發力 1:34.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bentley · B Crawford | H Bentley | B Crawford | 7 | 12.0 | — |
| 2 | 8 | SMART AVENUE 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 2 | 6.7 | N |
| 3 | 6 | LEGEND WINNER 早段領放 B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | POPE CODY 後段發力 TT J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 11 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | EVERYONE'S STAR 後段發力 H1 Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 3.3 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | VERMILION TEMPEST 後段發力 H/P/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 104.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | PANACEA CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 1 | 104.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | BUCEPHALAS XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 7.1 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | HARMONY GALAXY 後段發力 TT R Kingscote · C S Shum | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 5 | 47.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | MORGAN SUCCESS CP-/XB/B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 40.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | SERAPH GABRIEL E-/TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 6 | 9.8 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | WUKONG JEWELLERY TT M Guyon · J Size | M Guyon | J Size | 10 | 5.8 | 8 |
| 13 | 5 | WINNING GOLD TT D Probert · W Y So | D Probert | W Y So | 14 | 40.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | NOVA KNIGHT CP1 Y L Chung · D A Hayes | Y L Chung | D A Hayes | 13 | 136.0 | 11-1/4 |
| — | 0 | DO YOU JUST CP-/XB-/H1/TT1 · A S Cruz | — | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | SILO TT · J Richards | — | J Richards | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EVERYONE'S STAR | 31.0% | 3.23 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | SMART AVENUE | 14.9% | 6.73 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | WUKONG JEWELLERY | 10.9% | 9.21 | 12 |
| 4 | 13 | BUCEPHALAS | 7.6% | 13.24 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | POPE CODY | 7.1% | 14.08 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | LEGEND WINNER | 5.7% | 17.57 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | MORGAN SUCCESS | 4.4% | 22.51 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | SERAPH GABRIEL | 4.4% | 22.93 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | LOVERO | 3.8% | 26.60 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | HARMONY GALAXY | 3.7% | 26.91 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | WINNING GOLD | 2.2% | 45.29 | 13 |
| 12 | 14 | NOVA KNIGHT | 2.2% | 46.48 | 14 |
| 13 | 12 | VERMILION TEMPEST | 1.3% | 76.02 | 6 |
| 14 | 7 | PANACEA | 1.0% | 100.17 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 127
PLACE
6 33.5
8 20.5
9 37
QUINELLA
8,9 373.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 122.5
6,9 213.5
8,9 124.5
FORECAST
9,8 927
TIERCE
9,8,6 7,788
TRIO
6,8,9 1,389
FIRST 4
2,6,8,9 3,021
QUARTET
9,8,6,2 70,470
全部彩池（另 4 項）
10TH DOUBLE
3/8 32
3/9 415.5
2ND TREBLE
5/3/8 69
5/3/9 948
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,8/6,8,9 30,695
SIX UP
4,11/1,2,4/6,10/1,5/3,8/8,9 401
11/1,4/10/5/3/9 123,427
1 [Z Purton] —
1 [J Size] —